Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: MARCELO LUÍS DE AMORIM SOUZA

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de DOUTORADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
DISCENTE : MARCELO LUÍS DE AMORIM SOUZA
DATA : 24/05/2017
HORA: 08:00
LOCAL: Auditório do CCET
TÍTULO:

A dengue no Nordeste do Brasil: uma análise da evolução temporal e dos fatores meteorológicos e sociossanitários

PALAVRAS-CHAVES:

water shortage; building infestation index; changing weather patterns; vectors; human health; GoM.

PÁGINAS: 153
GRANDE ÁREA: Ciências Exatas e da Terra
ÁREA: Geociências
RESUMO:

Dengue is considered as an endemic disease throughout the tropical world, which is considered to be re-emergingwith around 50 to 100 million of cases of the disease, and more than one hundred of countries in the world annually. Among these countries, approximately 13.3 million come from America, which approximately this continent holds 14% of dengue cases. There were in 2015 over 1.6 million of cases in Brazil, which present approximately 12% of cases throughout America. Dengue is one of the major human diseases caused by mosquitoes in the subtropical and tropical regions. There are many factors that interfere with the mosquito's proliferation and consequently increase the dengue cases. They stand out those cases related to climate, temperature and rainfall. Other variables such as migration, intensive urbanization process, high socioeconomics vulnerability of populations and difficult living conditions in respect of infrastructure can alsointerfere on the disease dissemination. So, the objective of this work is to assess possible connection with the changing weather patterns and sanitation in the spreading of larvae infestation index (IIP) by Aedes aegypti and on the incidence of dengue in Brazilian northeast cities (NEB). Furthermore, this study seeks to estimate the rate of dengue incidence in Brazilian northeast cities through the empirical bayesian method (BE), considering the period from 2001 to 2015 and identify typologies of sanitationvulnerability to larvae infestation by Aedes aegypti and the dengue incidence in the Brazilian northeast cities using the Grade of Membership method (GoM). Data of DATASUS are used (dengue and IIP), IBGE and PNUD (socio-health variables) and INMET (meteorological). The used analytical methods are the BE, Time series, GoM, the calculated Relative Risks (RR) and the chi-squared tests done, mean squared error (MSE) and the Student to independent samples. From 2001 to 2015, 69,72% of cities from rates NEB registered of dengue incidence in pre-epidemic condition (100<rate<300) or of epidemic (rate>300). Although the levels of incidence have been heterogeneously distributed through the regional area, not producing a spatial pattern, a heavy concentration of higher incidence rates was detected in the northern semiarid (NS) and Lower in the northwest (NW). The application of the BE method has enabled the smoothing of elaborated maps. Were found differences through the QME (1 p-value) and of the Test T that was – 0.4562 to 2002 (0.648 p-value), among the estimates generated through bayesian method and the dengue crude rates. In 2014 was done the LIRAa/IIP in 773 of municipalities of the NEB, corresponding to a geographical coverage of 43.08% in the region.

A majority of municipalities (473) were in alert status (1.00<IIP<3.99) or Risk (IIP>4.00). The chi-squared tests verified the link between the classification of larvae infestation index (IIP) and of incidence rates (p-value<0.001), suggestingthe highest Relative Risk of dengue in municipalities which the IIP classified as alert status, higher 1.22 times, and on those with risks situation higher 1.81, when they are compared to those municipalities with satisfactory IIP.

MEMBROS DA BANCA:
Interno - 1752417 - CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA
Presidente - 1346630 - LARA DE MELO BARBOSA ANDRADE
Interno - 350691 - MARIA HELENA CONSTANTINO SPYRIDES
Interno - 320597 - PAULO SERGIO LUCIO