RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN PRECIPITATION AND WATER QUALITY IN A TROPICAL SHALLOW LAKE AND THE ROLE OF AQUATIC MACROPHYTES
aquatic vegetation; generalized additive models; remote sensing; water quality
Aquatic macrophytes play a fundamental role in the structure and functioning of shallow lakes, contributing to ecological stability and the maintenance of clear-water states. In the context of increasing frequency and intensity of extreme climate events, which tend to undermine the resilience of these ecosystems, macrophytes gain prominence due to their potential to mitigate such impacts. This study aimed to investigate the role of aquatic macrophyte cover in modulating the effects of rainfall on water quality in a tropical shallow lake used for public water supply in a coastal city in northeastern Brazil. The methodological approach included temporal analysis of historical time series of rainfall, water physicochemical variables, and macrophyte cover, as well as cross-correlation analyses among these variables. Additionally, generalized additive models (GAMs) were fitted using rainfall and the percentage of vegetation cover—estimated from PlanetScope satellite imagery—as predictors. The results indicated
that rainfall accounted for the largest share of explained variability, with turbidity, color, and nitrate being the most affected variables. A time lag of one to two days was observed between rainfall events and changes in some of these parameters. Overall, the models showed low to moderate explanatory power. The contribution of macrophytes was relatively limited, possibly due to methodological constraints and the spatial and temporal scale of the analysis.