Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: ALYNE SOARES DE MACÊDO

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : ALYNE SOARES DE MACÊDO
DATE: 25/07/2025
TIME: 09:00
LOCAL: Laboratório Didático I - DECOL/UFRN
TITLE:

EXTREME CLIMATE EVENTS AND THEIR EFFECTS ON THE WATER QUALITY OF A SHALLOW LAKE IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL

KEY WORDS:

Water quality; Aquatic vegetation; Extreme climatic events; Shallow lake

PAGES: 28
BIG AREA: Ciências Biológicas
AREA: Ecologia
SUMMARY:

The Pitimbu River watershed faces severe environmental challenges due to urban expansion, pollution, and the degradation of its Permanent Preservation Area. These pressures threaten the ecological balance and water quality of the Jiqui Lake, which is essential for the urban water supply of Natal, Rio Grande do Norte. Given that extreme climate events can have significant impacts on the water quality of surface water sources, and considering the existing research gap regarding the effects of climate on the water resources of this basin, the present study aims to identify the influence of extreme air temperature and precipitation events on the water quality of the Jiqui Lake during the period from 2012 to 2023. To this end, air temperature and precipitation data provided by the Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET, National Institute of Meteorology) and the Empresa de Pesquisa Agropecuária do Rio Grande do Norte (EMPARN, Agricultural Research Corporation of Rio Grande do Norte), respectively, will be used, along with water quality variables made available by the Companhia de Águas e Esgotos do Rio Grande do Norte (CAERN, Water and Sewerage Company of Rio Grande do Norte) and satellite imagery from PlanetScope. The applied methodology consists of an analysis of the temporal distribution of time series using descriptive numerical measures, followed by the application of the Mann-Kendall test to verify the presence of trends in the series. Considering that stationarity is still assumed in many studies, despite being potentially affected by factors such as climate change, the Kwiatkowski-PhillipsSchmidt-Shin (KPSS) statistical test and Seasonal and Trend Decomposition using Loess (STL) will be applied to the precipitation and air temperature series. Subsequently, climate extreme indices for air temperature and precipitation, developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), will be calculated. The lag between precipitation indices and water quality variables will then be assessed using cross-correlation analysis. The quantification of macrophyte coverage in the lake will be conducted using satellite imagery and machine learning techniques. Finally, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) will be applied to water quality variables, macrophyte coverage percentage, and climate extreme indices to identify the most relevant attributes contributing to the observed data variation. Therefore, the results of this research are expected to contribute to the understanding of climate patterns in the region and to the identification of key water quality variables affected by current climate conditions. Furthermore, the knowledge of historical trends may support responses to future environmental changes.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Externo ao Programa - 2411669 - JONATHAN MOTA DA SILVA - nullPresidente - 1362202 - JOSE LUIZ DE ATTAYDE
Externa ao Programa - 1914304 - KELLEN CARLA LIMA - nullInterna - 1345773 - RENATA DE FÁTIMA PANOSSO
Externo à Instituição - THIAGO SANNA FREIRE SILVA