When Origin Matters: Contrasting Spatiotemporal Land-use Dynamics in Tropical Lake and Reservoir Catchments
Deforestation; MapBiomas; Semi-arid; Shallow lakes; Watersheds
Land-use change is a major driver of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystem transformations, affecting carbon fluxes, biodiversity, and ecosystem services globally. Understanding land-use dynamics in freshwater catchments is critical, as these areas are shaped by several socio-environmental factors. However, knowledge of how the origin of freshwater ecosystems and the distance from the water bodies influence catchment land-use patterns remains limited. This study investigates the spatiotemporal land-use patterns in 98 tropical freshwater catchments, encompassing natural lakes and reservoirs in northeast Brazil. We used the MapBiomas Land-Use/Land-Cover Collection (1985 − 2022) for the catchments studied. The land-use index (LUi) was depicted by a composite variable, incorporating the metrics of the current land-use extent, rate of change, and long-term trend. We hypothesized that LUi would increase with the distance from the ecosystem shore, but more pronounced in the reservoir catchments. Moreover, using regression tree analysis (RTA), we explore how demographic and landscape factors, associated with catchment characteristics, influence the land-use dynamics. We show that spatiotemporal land-use trends differ significantly between lake and reservoir catchments: land-use increases with distance in lakes but decreases in reservoirs. This suggests that areas near to natural lakes are better protected than those further away, while in reservoir catchments, the headwater regions are less impacted than areas closer to the reservoir shore. Human population size, longitude, catchment area, and steepness were the key land-use predictors in the studied catchments irrespective of the aquatic ecosystem origin. Our results provide new insights into the mechanisms driving land-use patterns in catchments of tropical freshwater ecosystems, and highlights importance to consider freshwater ecosystem origin as a predictor of land-use patterns in catchments.