RISK MAPPING AND STABILITY ANALYSIS OF MASS MOVEMENTS IN THE SÃO JOSÉ DO JACÓ COMMUNITY, IN NATAL/RN
risk, hazard, vulnerability, stability, probability, mass movements, AHP
Method.
Despite being natural processes of Earth's surface dynamics, mass movements could be
accelerated or unleashed by anthropic interference. Inadequate occupation of areas
highly susceptible to mass movement processes, are the principal cause of accidents
associated with landslides in brazilian urban slopes, especially those occupied by
settlements and slums. In Natal, RN, the existence of high declivity areas allied to
inappropriate human occupation makes the municipality susceptible to slope stability
issues. One of the areas dealing with this problem is the São José do Jacó community,
where this work has focused. In that context, the present research aimed to map mass
movements occurrence risk, as well as quantify the stability of slopes neighboring the
São José do Jacó community. A semiquantitative model proposed by Faria (2011),
which implement the multi-criteria evaluation technique AHP in a GIS system, was
used for risk mapping. For slope stability analysis both deterministic and probabilistic
approaches were applied, assisted by the software Slide version 7.0, developed by
Rocscience. The risk analysis results show a critical hazard situation for the area
residents, mostly related to the possibility of slide mass movements, with potential
economic, environmental, and social losses. Considering the hypothetical condition of
complete saturation, both deterministic and probabilistic stability analyses indicate the
possibility of instability in sections 03 and 06. Simulations indicated stability in all
other sections.