Banca de DEFESA: HELOISA BEZERRA VARELA TEIXEIRA

Uma banca de DEFESA de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : HELOISA BEZERRA VARELA TEIXEIRA
DATE: 30/06/2025
TIME: 09:00
LOCAL: video conferencia
TITLE:

Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change in the Semi-Arid Region: Water Balance in the Armando Ribeiro Gonçalves Water System

KEY WORDS:

regulated streamflow, water resources management, drought.

PAGES: 70
BIG AREA: Engenharias
AREA: Engenharia Civil
SUBÁREA: Engenharia Hidráulica
SPECIALTY: Hidrologia
SUMMARY:

The semi-arid region of Northeast Brazil is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, with projections indicating an increased frequency of droughts and reduced streamflows in its main rivers. These changes may compromise the reservoirs’ regulation capacity, directly affecting water security in the region. This study aims to evaluate the stored volume in the Armando Ribeiro Gonçalves (ARG) water system, located in the Piancó-Piranhas-Açu River basin, under future climate scenarios. To achieve this, climatic and hydrological patterns of the system under recent climate conditions were analyzed, as well as projections of changes in precipitation and evaporation in the ARG coverage area, including the water stored in this system under such climate conditions. An integrated approach of hydrological modeling and water balance was used, employing the SMAP model, applied to the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios from the MIROC6 climate model for the 2025–2039 horizon. The hydrological model was calibrated and validated using data from two streamflow stations, with the station closest to the reservoir providing the best simulation of local hydrological conditions — a result that highlights the importance of considering anthropogenic interventions and regional characteristics when selecting calibration points. The climate simulations (MIROC6) adequately reproduced the seasonality of observed variables under recent climate conditions, especially precipitation and evaporation. The results indicated significant impacts of climate change on the reservoir’s storage and flow regulation capacity. The adopted methodology proved effective in supporting the planning and integrated management of water resources in the Piancó-Piranhas-Açu River basin in the face of future climate change scenarios.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Presidente - 2411669 - JONATHAN MOTA DA SILVA
Interna - 1057105 - SANDRA ISAY SAAD
Externo à Instituição - FABRÍCIO DANIEL DOS SANTOS SILVA - UFAL