Impactos da urbanização e das mudanças climáticas no regime hidrológico em bacias tropicais urbanizadas
hydrological modeling; urbanization; climate change; surface runoff; HEC-HMS; Pitimbu River Watershed.
Disordered urbanization and climate change have intensified alterations in the hydrological regime of tropical urban watersheds, increasing flood risks. This study analyzes the combined effects of these drivers on the Pitimbu River Watershed through hydrological modeling using the HEC-HMS 4.13 software. The methodology integrated land use and land cover mapping, the Copernicus GLO-30 Digital Surface Model, historical precipitation series (BR-DWGD), and climate projections from the MIROC5.2 model (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios). The SCS-CN, SCS-UH, and Recession methods were applied to simulate peak flows, total runoff volumes, and watershed response times. The results indicate a trend toward increased surface runoff and greater hydrological vulnerability within the watershed, driven by both urban expansion and the intensification of extreme precipitation events.