Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: YURE RÉVELLES DA SILVA MOURA

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : YURE RÉVELLES DA SILVA MOURA
DATE: 07/05/2021
TIME: 10:00
LOCAL: Videoconferência via Google Meet
TITLE:

IMPACTOS NO SETOR INDUSTRIAL REGIONAL: UMA ABORDAGEM COM VETORES AUTORREGRESSIVOS

KEY WORDS:

Autoregressive Vectors. Industry. Exogenous shock. Northeast.

PAGES: 110
BIG AREA: Ciências Sociais Aplicadas
AREA: Economia
SUMMARY:

The participation of the industrial sector in the Brazilian Gross Domestic Product (GDP), decreased by 0.4 percentage points, going from 21.8 % to 21.4 % between the years 2018 and 2019. Despite representing a low composition in the GDP, the industrial sector is the sector that generates the most wealth for Brazil. In this sense, this study has as its central objective to investigate the behavior of the industrial sector at regional and state level to exogenous shocks in the variables: oil price, exchange rate, and nominal interest rate. To achieve these objectives, a set of aggregated industrial data covering the years 2002 to 2019 was used, totaling 219 observations, obtained from the Brazilian Institute of Statistical Geography (IBGE). As macroeconomic variables, for the exchange rate, the effective real exchange rate obtained from the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) was adopted. For the price of oil, it used the price of a barrel of crude oil, of the Brent type, dated in dollars (US$) per barrel, obtained from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and finally, as a nominal interest rate, it used the variable (overselic) obtained from the Ipeadata website. As a methodological strategy, the approach with models with autoregressive vectors (VAR) was adopted for the regional and state industrial sector. In addition, it complemented the analysis with the impulse-response function and the decomposition of the variance of the forecast error. As a result, it was evidenced that the industrial sectors of the Northeast region respond heterogeneously and with different intensity to the shock in the macroeconomic variables. It was also found that the industrial sectors respond positively to shocks in the price of oil. Additionally, a negative impact was observed in the industrial sectors and in the general industry sector due to the increase in interest rates, the exception being the extractive segment that responded positively. As for the general industry of the states, there were distinct and accentuated effects in response to exogenous shocks, going against some results found in the international literature on the subject. In addition, the real exchange rate proved to be the main variable affecting the regional and state industrial product. Thus, it is concluded that shocks in these variables have a rapid effect in the short term in the industrial sectors, with the effect of the exchange rate being more intense and prolonged from the eighth month onwards.

BANKING MEMBERS:
Presidente - 1957532 - JOAO PAULO MARTINS GUEDES
Interno - 2323056 - DIEGO DE MARIA ANDRE
Interno - 1919307 - IGOR EZIO MACIEL SILVA