Banca de DEFESA: NELSON RUBENS COUTINHO FILHO

Uma banca de DEFESA de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
DISCENTE : NELSON RUBENS COUTINHO FILHO
DATA : 21/05/2018
HORA: 14:00
LOCAL: Auditório 2 do NEPSA II
TÍTULO:

THE PETROLEUM GEOPOLYTICS AND THE INFLUENCE ON THE PRICES OF THE MAIN BRAZILIAN AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES

PALAVRAS-CHAVES:

petroleum geopolitics; commodities; energy matrix; productive cost; structural break; cointegration

PÁGINAS: 159
GRANDE ÁREA: Ciências Sociais Aplicadas
ÁREA: Economia
RESUMO:

The objective of this dissertation was to study the relationship between the variation of oil prices and the variation in the prices of some agricultural commodities. The research theme was the influence of petroleum geopolitics on the fixing of oil prices and the quantitative and qualitative relationship between oil price variation and selected commodity price changes: sugar; coffee; corn; soy and wheat. The sample for the survey was collected from the IPEA and comprised the period from the first quarter of 1990 to the first quarter of 2016, 105 observations. This period was chosen because it did not understand the main negative oil supply shocks of the 1970s. The research work aimed at understanding the behavior of oil prices from the interaction between oil majors and OPEC and demanders and from then on, sought to understand the long-term correlation between the variation of oil prices and the variation of the prices of the chosen agricultural commodities, which are very important for the balance of the Brazilian trade balance. The theoretical reference for the understanding of petroleum geopolitics was based on the works of Yergin (2010), Clô (2000) and Torres Filho (2004). For the review of the literature on agricultural commodities, the basic bibliographies of Von Lampe (2006), Souza et al (2010), Peres (2005) and Pinazza (2007) were used. For the verification of the quantitative relationship between oil prices and commodity prices, the following econometric tests were performed: Durbin-Watson test (d); Increased Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Test; Test of unit root with structural break made by the methods of Zivot-Andrews and Perron; Test for multiple breaks of Bai-Perron (1998); and Cointegration test from Engle-Granger. The econometric and statistical analysis of time series of selected commodity prices confirmed a positive relationship between oil price changes and price changes for all commodities for most of the period of the survey, with inversions of temporary signals for only two commodities . These tests showed that this relationship may not be verified in the short term, but in the long run the tests confirmed that the series are cointegrated.

MEMBROS DA BANCA:
Externo à Instituição - EDUARDO COSTA PINTO - UFRJ
Presidente - 1752338 - FABRICIO PITOMBO LEITE
Interno - 1474874 - JANAINA DA SILVA ALVES