Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: MAGDA EMANUELE LIMA DA SILVA

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
DISCENTE : MAGDA EMANUELE LIMA DA SILVA
DATA : 09/03/2018
HORA: 15:00
LOCAL: Sala B7 do setor de aulas V
TÍTULO:

DYNAMICS OF THE BRAZILIAN INDUSTRY IN THE PERIOD 2002-2017: AN ESTIMATION OF THE LAW OF KALDOR VERDOORN

PALAVRAS-CHAVES:

Kaldor's Law - Verdoorn; industrial structure; Production; Productivity

PÁGINAS: 75
GRANDE ÁREA: Ciências Sociais Aplicadas
ÁREA: Economia
RESUMO:

This work aims to analyze the dynamics of the Brazilian industry considering the Law of Kaldor-Verdoorn that proposes to exist a positive relation between the production and productivity. The economic literature proves from empirical data that there is a close relationship between the per capita level of countries with the degree of industrialization and that there is also a close association between GDP and manufacturing growth in the various nations. According to Thirlwall (2005), the fastest growing countries tend to be those in which the share of industry in GDP increases with more speed. However, it should be noted here that, especially for underdeveloped countries, the participation of industry in economic growth is of paramount importance in the promotion of employment and income. In this context, the dynamism of the industry deserves to be highlighted, as well as the incentives to increase productivity and production, as well as the relationship between the two. The works of Kaldor (1975) and Verdoorn (1951) have brought to theoretical theory the theoretical basis of the positive relationship between productivity and production. As production increases, there is a strong tendency for productivity to keep pace with this movement over time, and to be valid in periods of economic expansion. Therefore, this papper seeks to analyze the dynamics of Brazilian industry in the period from 2002 to 2017, testing the assumptions of the Kaldor Verdoorn law. Thus, the tests of Cointegration proposed by Johansen (1990) and the Granger causality test 1987) to know the long-term relationship of the analyzed variables that are estimated in a the vector error correction vector (VECM). It was also sought to know the exact period of the structural changes of the model, through the test of Bai-Perron (2003). The inconclusive results affirm that in the long term there is a positive relation between the variables, that is, that the more the productivity in the industrial sector, the higher the production accelerates. However, it can also be concluded that the Law is only valid in periods of economic expansion, which may be seen as the dynamics of the industry, is considered reasonable in the period in question.

 

MEMBROS DA BANCA:
Interno - 2323056 - DIEGO DE MARIA ANDRE
Interno - 1919307 - IGOR EZIO MACIEL SILVA
Presidente - 1957532 - JOAO PAULO MARTINS GUEDES