Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: ANNA PAULETTI CRUZ ROGÉRIO

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
DISCENTE : ANNA PAULETTI CRUZ ROGÉRIO
DATA : 09/02/2018
HORA: 09:00
LOCAL: Sala 1 - PPGG
TÍTULO:

Flood Mapping in Estuarine Areas Facing Climate Change Scenarios: Application on Urban Zone of Areia Branca/RN

PALAVRAS-CHAVES:

Flood Modeling, Astronomical Tide, Integrated Coastal Management.

PÁGINAS: 20
GRANDE ÁREA: Ciências Exatas e da Terra
ÁREA: Geociências
RESUMO:

The estuarine marginal areas are generally densely populated and where important concentrations of economic activity infrastructures are installed which increase their vulnerability and risk to flooding. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report for the year 2014, the Medium Sea Level (NMM) will rise by 0.98 cm by 2100, in the most pessimistic scenario. In addition, it is also expected an increase in the frequency of occurrence of extreme marine and meteorological events, which would have a direct effect on the coastal and estuarine zones. Flood processes in these areas are generally due to the combination of numerous factors such as river floods, astronomical tides, meteorological tides and, in some cases, extreme events of meteo-oceanographic conditions. The study area comprises the urban area of the city of Areia Branca, located in the semi-arid region of Potiguar, on the banks of the Apodi-Mossoró Estuary. This region has been suffering from constant floods and in recent decades the events have intensified, causing disruption to the local population. As a result, the objective was to evaluate the flood risk in the urban zone in different scenarios of extreme elevation of NMM. These IPCC scenarios were established for the year 2100 according to the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) of the most optimistic with 0.4 m, the intermediate of 0.53 m and the worst case with 0.74 m. We also considered the local IBGE scenario with 0.20 m. The methodology was developed in four stages: (i) Statistical analysis of the Astronomical Tide (for the historical series of 47 years of data), identifying its extremes and its frequency; (ii) Linking the Astronomical Tide to the Brazilian Geodetic Network (RGB); (iii) Calibration of Digital Terrain Model (MDT) to RGB; and, (iv) Data modeling, spatializing the scenarios under study. The results determined the extent of potentially flooded areas and the risk associated with them as the tide reaches its extremes. The relevance of the results could guide future public policies and assist municipal management in urban spatial planning for the next 100 years.

MEMBROS DA BANCA:
Externo ao Programa - 1222082 - ADA CRISTINA SCUDELARI
Externo à Instituição - MARIA DE FATIMA ALVES DE MATOS - UFRN
Presidente - 350698 - VENERANDO EUSTAQUIO AMARO