Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: CASSIO RODRIGO DA COSTA ALMEIDA

FINANCIAL POWER AND REGIONAL ELECTIONS IN BRAZIL IN 2014, 2018 AND 2022

Political Geography Electoral Geography. Accounting. Elections.

Political geography is considered a sub-discipline of geography, which includes themes permeated by the relationship between power and territory, ranging from geopolitics to electoral geography. The latter goes beyond the elaboration of its best-known product - electoral cartograms - to study the geographical aspects of the entire electoral process, using categories such as space, territory and place. Electoral geography therefore encompasses the process of spatial and systematic analysis of elections. Through the study basis of both, researchers examine how the geographical characteristics of a place influence the attitudes, behaviors and political choices of individuals. In this way, the research aims to analyze the importance of financial aspects in the majoritarian elections of the Brazilian Federative Units in the 2014, 2018 and 2022 elections, covering everything from the sources of fundraising to the composition of campaign spending. The choice of these three elections aims to provide an idea of the recent evolution of these parameters for making electoral campaigns viable in the country. In order to do this, it was necessary to develop specific objectives, which were: to identify the sources of fundraising in the Federative Units' major electoral campaigns; to analyze the composition of spending in the Federative Units' major electoral campaigns; and to analyze the sources of fundraising, the composition of spending and aspects of the Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) in the Federative Units' major electoral campaigns using cartography. In addition, a hypothesis was drawn up with the question to be verified in the investigation: is the financial variable a determining factor for success in electoral campaigns? The study is also characterized as descriptive and explanatory. As for the technical procedures, it adopts a historical comparative analysis, as well as a quantitative approach. In order to support the hypothesis formulated, the sample was defined as the elected and unelected candidates for governor of the 27 Brazilian states in the 2014, 2018 and 2022 elections. The data will be collected through the Superior Electoral Court's electronic platform, the Disclosure of Candidatures and Electoral Accounts - DivulgaCand. Cartography will also be used to verify the spatial behavior of the data through the location, interaction and representation of the phenomena studied. To build the econometric model, the dependent variable will be the elected and unelected candidates for governor. The independent variables will be the types of revenue collected and the various categories of expenditure. The control variables will include information such as the number of votes received, party affiliation, use of the social vulnerability index in its three spheres, among other characteristics. In the process of assessing the relationship between these variables and the election results, a combination of techniques will be devised to create a variable using the main income and expenditure indicators. To verify the influence of the financial factor on these variables, the Logistic Regression Models (Logit) technique will be used. In this sense, from this confrontation between geographical and accounting aspects, it is hoped to contribute new horizons to the subject of electoral geography.