Banca de DEFESA: DANIEL CARLOS ALVES SANTOS

Uma banca de DEFESA de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : DANIEL CARLOS ALVES SANTOS
DATE: 27/02/2024
TIME: 15:00
LOCAL: Natal - Google Meet
TITLE:

WATER SECURITY: supply infrastructure and vulnerability modeling

KEY WORDS:

Water Security, Spatial Modeling, Water Vulnerability.

PAGES: 118
BIG AREA: Ciências Exatas e da Terra
AREA: Geociências
SUMMARY:

Water security of a country occurs when its population has sustainable access to adequate quantities of quality water for development across different sectors. In the Brazilian context, characterized by significant climatic diversity, biodiversity, and land use and cover, measures aimed at ensuring minimum conditions of access to quality water and promoting water security have been institutionalized since the National Water Resources Policy (1997) to the National Water Security Plan (2019). Accordingly, it is necessary to dissect different variables parallel to the water issue to create scenarios that allow us to model and analyze municipal criticality in this regard. Thus, this study aims to understand the criticality of Brazilian municipalities regarding the satisfaction of demands for water resources and to relate the emergence of strategic interventions (completed, ongoing, and planned) within the PNSH. To achieve this, a methodology based on spatial modeling is employed, supported by Spatial Statistical Models and Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) and Local Spatial Autocorrelation with clusters and outliers. These approaches prove significant, particularly when seeking to understand the territorial reverberation of different variables. Consequently, the panorama of Brazilian water security was delineated based on the recurrence of disasters from extreme events (drought, dry spell, flooding, and runoff), the compromise of water sources for municipal supply (quantitative water balance), water consumption dynamics for the development of various productive activities and social segments, the dependency of rural communities on the Operação Carro-Pipa (OCP) for supply, and the existence of strategic interventions of the PNSH in different types (dams, canals, integration axes, and pipelines). From this overview, two municipalities were identified as "very critical," 1,263 municipalities as "critical," and 595 municipalities as "concerning". For 627 Brazilian municipalities, an amount of R$ 37.9 billion is projected, with a per capita investment of R$ 610.10.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Interno - 1503011 - LUTIANE QUEIROZ DE ALMEIDA
Interno - 1172876 - SILVIO BRAZ DE SOUSA
Externo à Instituição - WILDE CARDOSO GONTIJO JUNIOR - UnB