Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: DENNER SANTIAGO DE SOUSA

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : DENNER SANTIAGO DE SOUSA
DATE: 20/03/2020
TIME: 10:00
LOCAL: Sala 212 do CTEC/UFRN - Auditório da CCEA
TITLE:

IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER AVAILABILITY IN A HYDROGRAPHIC BASIN IN THE SEMI-ARID

KEY WORDS:

Water Resources. Performance of water resource system. Mann-Kendall test. Q90.

PAGES: 29
BIG AREA: Engenharias
AREA: Engenharia Sanitária
SUMMARY:

Climate change and the increase in the greenhouse effect must cause changes in hydrological processes due to changes in evapotranspiration and precipitation patterns. However, in water resource engineering, stationarity’s principle is traditionally assumed, i. e., the variability of the past will be repeated in the future, which may not be maintained in a climate change scenario. Studies of climate change and water resources have two more frequent approaches: climate simulation and trend analysis of historical series. Climatic simulations can diverge to the same geographical space depending on the methodology and scenarios assumed, but there are regions of the globe where there is convergence: as in the case of the semiarid where there is an expectation of increased evapotranspiration and the frequency and intensity of droughts. These future scenarios of increased evapotranspiration, despite the uncertainty regarding the variability of precipitation, can result in significant impacts on water availability in the region, which naturally has a high water deficit. Trend analysis investigates the stationarity of the series; in case of non-stationary, trends or change-points are sought. Thus, the aim of this work is to assess the impact of climate change on water availability in the semiarid region of Northeast Brazil, the study consisting of two stages: i) trend analysis of the evapotranspiration series and ii) evaluation of reservoir performance based on the results of climate change scenarios. To assess the condition of stationarity in the historical series of evapotranspiration, the study will use non-parametric statistical tests: Mann-Kendall and Modified Mann-Kendall tests, the Sen’s slope and Pettit’s test. In order to analyze the impact of climate change on water availability in the semiarid, 264 scenarios will be evaluated based on variations in the magnitude of precipitation, evapotranspiration and affluent flow in the Boqueirão de Parelhas, Cruzeta, Dourado, Passagem das Traíras e Marechal Dutra reservoirs. Reservoir performance will be assessed for Q₉₀ and reliability, vulnerability and resilience criteria.

BANKING MEMBERS:
Interna - 1759777 - ADELENA GONCALVES MAIA
Presidente - 2190974 - JOANA DARC FREIRE DE MEDEIROS
Externo ao Programa - 2411669 - JONATHAN MOTA DA SILVA
Interna - 1764855 - VANESSA BECKER