USE OF WEATHER FORECASTS TO DEFINE RESERVOIR OPERATION RULES
Optimization. Cruzeta Reservoir. Water scarcity.
Dam and reservoir systems are the main components in the field of water resources and developing an operating rule for optimizing demand fulfillment is crucial. The reservoir rule curves and the hedging rules provide operating guidelines that can be followed to minimize the impacts of a drought when reservoirs are drawing down because of insufficient inflows. Genetic algorithms has been widely applied in reservoir operation studies for developing optimal rule curves, operating policies and hedging. The integration of meteorological forecasting in a hydrological system management model can substantially improve the safety of hydrological system operation. Given this, this research proposes to verify the suitability of the use of precipitation forecasts in the definition of reservoir operation rules, using genetic algorithm. For this, seasonal precipitation forecasts will be associated with the operation of a reservoir located in the Brazilian semiarid, the Cruzeta reservoir. As a result, reservoir performance indexes are expected to be improved.