MATEMATHICAL MODEL APPLIED TO UNDERSTAND CLOROPHYL-A DYNAMIC IN COASTAL LAGOON
Eutrophication. Ecological modeling. chlorophyll-a. climate change
The investigation of temporal dynamics of phytoplankton in water bodies is a real and growing need in the face of problems involving eutrophication processes due to human impacts. Given the complexity of the phenomena involving phytoplankton growth, it is necessary the use of mathematical models that simulate software related processes and structures to this growth. In this study, we used the IPH-ECO model (0-D version) software that integrates the hydrodynamic processes, water quality (limnology) and biology of aquatic species. The environment studied was the coastal lake of Extremoz that supplies the city of Natal (RN) during the period from 07/2012 to 08/2013. After the calibration of the model using the dynamics of chlorophyll-a as the response variable, we simulated various scenarios individually changing the forcing variables: rain, evaporation, wind, solar radiation and temperature. The results show that the 0-D version of the model IPH-ECO is insensitive to climatic variations, preventing this version to be used in simulations of pollution or for the management of the lake.