Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: FELIPE HENRIQUE DE SOUZA

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de DOUTORADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : FELIPE HENRIQUE DE SOUZA
DATE: 28/08/2024
TIME: 09:00
LOCAL: Videoconferência via Gerência de Redes do CCET/UFRN
TITLE:

PROJECTION WITH PREDICTION INTERVAL FOR THE POPULATION OF BRAZILIAN STATES BY SEX AND AGE GROUPS: 2025 TO 2060

KEY WORDS:

projection; credibility interval; uncertainty estimation

PAGES: 60
BIG AREA: Ciências Sociais Aplicadas
AREA: Demografia
SUBÁREA: Política Pública e População
SUMMARY:

Population projection is an important tool for planning public policies and the supply of products and services. Since years 70, the IBGE has been making projections of the Brazilian population. The United Nations periodically presents projections for all countries in the world, traditionally these projections are made using deterministic models. Since 2010 the UN also began to present interval projections, produced through stochastic models, making it possible to measure the degree of uncertainty in the projections. This work projects the population of the State of São Paulo, by sex and five-year age groups, with stochastic models, making it possible to create credibility intervals for the projections. The projection horizon is the year 2060, the same year adopted in the last IBGE review. The projection made in this work shows that the state's population will begin to decline by 2035. According to projections, the dependency ratio will be more than 70 dependent people for every 100 people of working age in 2060. This increase in the dependency ratio is mainly due to the aging of the population of São Paulo, which in 2060 will have 3 elderly people for every young person. Aging, in turn, occurs through a reduction in fertility and mortality, trends that are also observed in the projection of these demographic components carried out in this work.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Externo à Instituição - EVERTON EMANUEL CAMPOS DE LIMA - UNICAMP
Externo ao Programa - 1781198 - FIDEL ERNESTO CASTRO MORALES - nullPresidente - 1346605 - FLAVIO HENRIQUE MIRANDA DE ARAUJO FREIRE
Interno - 2002253 - MARCOS ROBERTO GONZAGA