EFFECTS OF AGE, PERIOD AND COHORT ON ELETRICITY CONSUMPTION OF BRAZILIAN HOUSEHOLDS IN THE 21ST CENTURY: an analysis from the perspective of the population-consumption-environment relationship
population-environment, consumption, electricity, age-period-cohort effect
Consumption is one of the main mediators in the relationship between population and environment, especially in a context where a consumer society and a severe global climate change are associated. To understand the dynamics between population and consumption in its fullness requires the exploration of several areas of knowledge, notably the social sciences, because it is necessary to consider social, economic, historical, behavioral, ethical, and value aspects. One way to capture this wide range of factors is by conducting an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. Age effects represent changes over the life course of individuals and/or families; period effects are associated with changes due to specific events over the years; and cohort effects comprise the idea that different social and economic contexts in which a generation has been subjected since birth can influence its values and behaviors. The main objective of the research is to identify and understand the effects of age, period, and cohort on per capita household electricity consumption in Brazil. The data source was the Consumer Expenditure Survey – POF – comprising the years 2002-2003, 2008-2009, and 2017-2018. To overcome the problem of identifying the coefficients, several linear models with different forms of constraint and the hierarchical two-level mixed-effects model were used. As results, there was an increase in consumption to the extent that the household is headed by older people and between the analyzed periods. As for the cohort effect, it was found that cohorts born after 1960 presented a decline in the intensity of energy consumption compared to older cohorts. These results contribute to a better understanding of energy consumption behavior within Brazilian households and how it has been shaped over time, thus subsidizing the planning of environmental and energy public policies for better targeting the actions and resources.