Immobility and environmental perceptions: vulnerability, and adaptation strategies in the Seridó Potiguar
Migration; Social Politics; Population and Environment; Climate Changes; Drought
During the 1950s to the 1970s the Northeast as a whole became known as a loser space of your population, since the large population flows that left for the Southeast were historically associated with severe and prolonged droughts. Recent studies related that climate events will intensify and may lead to the displacement of entire populations in some localities, including in localities were the drought is a recurring phenomenon. However, it is still inclusive the association between environmental changes and migration, both due to the difficulty of dissociating individual motivations and of economic character, as well as for limitations on population surveys. In addition, the migration is only one among of a range of strategies to adapt to environmental changes. Starting from the immobile population, this research aims to analyze the relationship of individual environmental perceptions with the strategies to deal with environmental change. It is considered the hypothesis that individuals will have differentiated responses, depending mainly on income strata and other individual attributes. In this sense, the Income Transfer Programs (PTR) could work as a strategy to mitigate the vulnerability, reducing the income inequalities. Therefore, the database used consist qualitative research conducted from January 2017 with more than one thousand households in the Seridó Potiguar region. Multidimensional profiles of the immobile population will be created from their individual attributes and environmental perceptions, based on a diffuse partition model using the Grade of Membership (GoM) method in statistical software R version 2.15.2. Thus, we can obtain profiles of the immobile population and compare the environmental perceptions between the groups with their attributes, including income and PTR beneficiaries. It is necessary to recognize such populations and their specific vulnerabilities, in order to anticipate the risk to direct appropriate public policies to mitigate or adapt to change.