Probabilistic Seacliffs Stability Analysis In Rio Grande Do Norte
State, Ne Brazil.
Slope Stability, Probabilistic Analysis, Failure Probability, Monte Carlo
Simulation, Cliff Retreat.
The coastline of the State of Rio Grande do Norte is a dynamic region. This area, which
is composed of sandy beaches and alive cliffs of Barreiras Formation, has natural
beauties that motivate occupation. Urbanization increases the rate of mass movements
and sea cliff retreat. This process is an important socioeconomic issue, involving loss of
land and risks to the population. Previous research on this topic has performed slope
stability analysis through deterministic methods of assessment of mass movements
risks. However, conventional slope stability analysis does not account for uncertainty in
soil properties. In other words, the deterministic factor of safety cannot precisely
address the state of the slope. In light of this fact, this study will perform a probabilistic
approach through Monte Carlo simulations to assess directly the state of the cliffs of
Barra de Tabatinga beach, in the city of Nísia Floresta/RN. Field survey, and
computational analysis will be carried out. The probabilistic analysis will be performed
using the software Rocscience - Slide 7.0. This research will use search methods for
circular and non-circular slip surfaces to search effectively failure types identified in the
area. Moreover, in order to identify the significant geotechnical parameters affecting the
factor of safety, sensitivity analysis will be performed. This project expects to
contribute to a better understanding of coastal retreat and represents an additional
reliable information to the factor of safety. This methodology shall provide an
acceptable criterion for risk assessment of the coastal cliffs.