SOCIAL SPENDING ACROSS MUNICIPALITIES IN THE BRAZILIAN NORTHEAST: A FISCAL AND POLITICAL ANALYSIS OF THE RECENT PERIOD
Social Spending; Municipal Revenues; Federative Political Alliances; Northeastern Municipalities.
This dissertation seeks to comparatively analyze the per capita social spending of Northeastern municipalities in relation to local government revenues per capita (own resources or via intergovernmental transfers), as well as the political alignment of local administrators with state managers and the administration of the Federal Government, from the biennia 2012 and 2013, 2016 and 2017, and 2020 and 2021. Consequently, it is admitted that the research hypothesis supports the existence of Brazilian per capita social expenditures on a municipal scale in the Northeast, which increase in the face of the impact on own public revenues or through intergovernmental transfers per capita (state and federal). Alternatively, local political-party alignment with state managers and the administration of the Federal Government may provide positive or negative effects depending on the alignment of support or opposition. Methodologically, the study employs literature review marked by revisiting economic and political aspects from a conceptual standpoint, as well as descriptive statistical measurement instruments and the econometric method of quantile regression via Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) to measure the behavior of the variables assumed here. The expected results should demonstrate the impact of fiscal revenue variables and political alliances, which federatively accommodate, tending to show positive and/or negative repercussions on Northeastern municipal social spending in the indicated time frames.