GEOHERITAGE AND CLIMATE CHANGE: The risk of degradation of geoheritage and vulnerability to tidal flooding of geosites in the Costa Branca region of Rio Grande do Norte
Geodiversity; Geoheritage; Climate change and Risk of degradation.
In recent decades, environmental conservation has become a central theme in academic and political discussions, but it is clear that historically the greatest emphasis has always been on the biotic components of ecosystems, relegating geodiversity to a secondary role. However, growing anthropogenic impacts affect ecosystems in an integrated manner, simultaneously affecting biotic and abiotic elements. Geodiversity – understood by Claudino-Sales (2021) as the variety of elements and processes associated with the abiotic environment, geological, geomorphological, pedological, hydrological, and climatic diversity, in any form, spatial and temporal scale, and mode of interaction – constitutes the basis that sustains biodiversity and human activities, providing essential resources and services to ecosystems. This relationship between geodiversity and biodiversity over geological time highlights the strong interdependence between the components of the Earth system. Events such as mass extinctions, basaltic spills, and biogeochemical processes, such as the Great Oxygenation Event, demonstrate how abiotic and biological factors interact and transform the planet, its environments, and its climate. In recent decades, studies on geodiversity have evolved in two main areas: initially focused on the conceptual and theoretical consolidation of the theme and, subsequently, on the development of methodologies for inventorying, evaluating, and mapping geosites and geoheritage. These advances have made it possible to expand knowledge about areas of geological and geomorphological relevance, as well as their scientific, educational, tourist and conservation potential. However, such studies have also highlighted the vulnerability of these sites to anthropogenic pressures and, more recently, to global environmental changes. Coastal areas stand out in this context, being considered important hotspots due to their high geodiversity, intense natural dynamics, great biodiversity and because they are the most densely populated areas on Earth. In the context of climate change and rising sea levels, there is concern about the possible impacts on coastal geoheritage, and these issues become even more dramatic in the context of low-lying coastal stretches. Thus, this text assumes that the geosites of the Costa Branca region in Rio Grande do Norte are highly vulnerable to degradation and/or are at risk of flooding by tides, especially considering the climate scenarios projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Therefore, the overall objective of the research is to analyse the vulnerability and risk of degradation of the geoheritage of the municipalities of Porto do Mangue, Macau, Guamaré and Galinhos and to model the increase in mean sea level and the danger of tidal flooding considering scenario RCP 8.5 of the sixth IPCC report (2022). To this end, steps will be developed that include the identification and assessment of the risk of degradation of geosites, the modelling of flood scenarios, the classification of vulnerability and risk, the preparation of forecasts and, finally, the evaluation of the accuracy of the models produced. The thesis will be structured in the form of scientific articles, covering everything from the theoretical framework to risk analysis and the validation of cartographic models.