MORTALITY AND LENGTH OF HOSPITAL STAY IN POST-STROKE PATIENTS IN THE BRAZILIAN PUBLIC HEALTH SYSTEM: A TIME SERIES WITH PREDICTION ANALYSIS
Public Health Services; Costs and Cost Analysis; Statistical Models
Introduction: Stroke is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide due to vascular diseases. The management of acute stroke patients requires rapid access to emergency services and hospitalization for disease control. Consequently, stroke has a significant impact on individuals' lives and healthcare services. Objectives: To investigate the time series and predictive factors of in-hospital mortality and length of stay, as well as hospital costs, for stroke patients treated in the Brazilian Unified Health System (SUS) over a six-year period (2018–2023). Methods: This is an observational time-series study with predictive analysis, using data collected through TabWin from the Hospital Information System of the Unified Health System (SIHSUS), which provides access to individual-level health data. The time-series analysis will examine trends in mortality, length of hospital stay, and hospital costs associated with stroke in SUS over the years. In the predictive analysis, multiple regression models will be used to explore the relationships between mortality and length of stay with sociodemographic variables. Preliminary results: After accessing the dataset and applying eligibility criteria, a total of 1,321,282 individuals hospitalized in SUS for stroke between 2018 and 2023 were identified. The majority were male (52.4%) and aged between 60 and 69 years (25.1%). The most common length of hospital stay was up to 5 days (55.7%), and the in-hospital mortality rate was 16.3%.