ASSESSMENT OF VACCINATION COVERAGE IN BRAZIL FROM 2013 TO 2024: CORRELATION BETWEEN VACCINE HESITANCY AND THE USE OF SOCIAL MEDIA
Vaccination. Vaccination Coverage. Time Factors. Vaccination Hesitancy. Social Media
Immunization is one of humanity's achievements in controlling and eradicating infectious diseases. Brazil is one of the few countries that provides its population with free access to vaccines recommended by the World Health Organization through the National Vaccination Program. Immunization is considered a modifier in the course of diseases, as it leads to a marked decrease in morbidity and mortality caused by infectious diseases that can be prevented by vaccination. However, insufficient vaccination coverage can increase the burden of endemic infectious diseases and the risk of resurgence of eliminated pathogens. The reasons for reduced vaccination coverage are complex and multifactorial, including factors such as vaccine hesitancy, which is sometimes associated with a process referred to by the World Health Organization as an infodemic. The study aims to evaluate the vaccination rate in Brazil in the historical series from 2013 to 2023 and the correlation of vaccination trends with social media use. This is a quantitative, epidemiological, and qualitative study that integrates three methodological approaches: a) systematic literature review; b) observational epidemiological studies; c) mixed methods study; d) netnographic study based on Social Network Analysis. The results revealed that social media content on vaccine risks has a greater influence on public perception than information on safety. Regarding epidemiological studies, a pattern of stationary trends was observed in most of the immunobiologicals analyzed, with wide interannual variability. For Hepatitis B vaccination, a period of decline and stability in vaccination rates was identified between 2013 and 2021 in all Brazilian macro-regions, followed by a positive inflection from 2022 onwards, especially in the North, Northeast, Midwest, and South regions. However, the Prais–Winsten (PW) analyses did not identify a significant overall trend, pointing to fragility in the sustainability of the observed growth. In the dT and dTpa vaccines, most of the temporal segments analyzed did not show a statistically significant trend. The Pneumo23 vaccine results indicate an increase in vaccination in most of the country, albeit with varying intensities between regions. Influenza immunization in the North and Southeast regions showed significant initial declines, followed by a recent recovery (especially in the North); the other regions remained mostly stable, with insignificant variations; in the state analysis, most states (21 federal units) showed a stable trend. For the triple viral vaccine against mumps, measles and rubella, despite periods of intensified vaccination of the adult population, these advances did not consolidate over time, resulting in a scenario of temporal instability and structural fragility. The integration of quantitative and qualitative findings allows for the inclusion of new interpretive analyses, strengthening the discussion on the correlation between the circulation of misinformation on social media and variations in vaccination coverage rates in Brazil. Thus, we conclude that this study can enable advances beyond the description of phenomena, contributing to the understanding of the social, communicational, and political mechanisms that influence vaccine hesitancy.