Impacts of climate change on wind energy resources in South America through CMIP6 climate projections
Wind energy, climate change, CMIP6.
ABSTRACT
This work is a research on the possible impacts of climate change on wind energy, with the general objective of analyzing the potential impact of climate change on wind energy resources in South America, quantifying the density of wind energy (derived from data of wind speed near the surface) from the future projections of CMIP6, obtaining how different from the past-present are the future scenarios for the production of this type of energy. The research will be carried out using data from the Inter-Climate Model Comparison Project (CMIP6) of daily and monthly wind on the surface, in which they will be used, and obtained from the website of the "Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF)" for 5 Circulation Models General Atmosphere (MCGA) with horizontal resolutions greater than 1.25° in latitude and longitude and with data for the future climate scenarios, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, all wind data grids from the models will be remapped to a grid following an area-weighted bilinear interpolation. Data validation will be done using the ERA5 reanalysis of the ECMWF (C3S). The conditions of changes in wind and energy density will be evaluated by analyzing the differences between the baseline (1995-2014) and the future periods (2046-2065 and 2081-2100), these analyzes will also be carried out seasonally.