DIURNAL CYCLE PRECIPITATION OF NORTHEAST BRAZIL
Diurnal Cycle, Precipitation, Regional Climate Models, RegCM.
The diurnal rainfall variability has a spatial behavior that strongly depends on surface conditions and is related to variations in local circulations, topography and contrast in land cover and use. Understanding and simulating the daily rainfall cycle in a region is important for weather forecasting and for evaluating the efficiency of dynamic climate system models. Few studies have investigated the behavior of the diurnal precipitation cycle in the NEB region and, knowing that the evaluation of the diurnal precipitation cycle is an important test for the consistency analysis of a regional dynamic model, the objective of this project is to analyze the characteristics of the diurnal cycle of precipitation over NEB from the perspective of in situ observations and with regional dynamic modelling. The simulations will be carried out with the Regional Climate Model version 4.6 (RegCM4.6) in different periods. For the evaluation of the simulations, 6 years will be chosen (2008 to 2014). For the treatment of wet processes, the model considers two cumulus parameterization schemes (Grell and Kain-Fritsch). The validation of the simulation data in relation to the observed data will be done through statistical tests such as: ANOVA, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Square Error (RMSE). Precipitation observations will be obtained from 76 automatic stations, managed by the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET). From this study, we intend to answer questions about the reliability of the model and adequately represent the day cycle in the NEB, as well as the variability of the diurnal cycle in different subregions of the NEB.