CLIMATE AND ENERGY PLANNING IN NORTHEAST BRAZIL
Wind speed. Flow rate. Main Component
Water scarcity in Northeastern Brazil is a relevant topic for the study focused on energy planning. Electricity is treated as a sensitive input in the production chain, and therefore, despite the considerable tradition in the use of this matrix, electricity in the domestic scenario presents strong restrictions due to the limitations of the availability of water resources. Its intrinsic relationship with climate and alternatively precede the need for new matrices to emerge as a sigh of complementarity. Thus, the general objective of the research is to identify the influence of climate on electric power generation in Northeast Brazil. For this, data were used for flow (period 1964-2017), level, anomaly of sea surface temperature, precipitation, generation, charge and importation of electricity (period 2000-2017). The methodology employed was based on statistical inference, principal components and linear regression. Thus, preliminary results showed a reduction of 28.5% in the flow upstream of Sobradinho reservoir from 1.730 m3.s-1 to 1.429 m3.s-1. Using the scores of the principal components in linear regression, it presented a reduction in generation by water source by up to 66% due to the useful volume control.