Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: SOPHIA VICTORIA SANTOS

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : SOPHIA VICTORIA SANTOS
DATE: 07/04/2026
TIME: 14:00
LOCAL: Auditório do DGE
TITLE:

FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR RIO GRANDE DO NORTE: changes in land use and land cover (2030 – 2100)

KEY WORDS:

Predictive modeling; CA-Markov; Spatial planning; Rio Grande do Norte.

PAGES: 57
BIG AREA: Ciências Exatas e da Terra
AREA: Geociências
SUMMARY:

This research develops a computational script in Python aiming to model future land use and land cover scenarios in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, generating decadal predictive thematic maps between 2030 and 2100 to understand expansion fronts and support spatial planning and territorial management. The methodology utilizes the integration of Cellular Automata, Markov Chains (CA-Markov), and Weights of Evidence, processing large volumes of raster data through parallel programming. The study calibrates three prospective scenarios: the neutral scenario (business as usual), which projects the inertial continuity of current land use dynamics; the pessimistic scenario, which assumes the weakening of environmental policies and accelerated expansion of anthropogenic activity; and the optimistic scenario, based on high governance and strict compliance with conservation laws. To validate robustness, a retrospective spatiotemporal validation is performed by projecting the year 2020 for comparison with observed data. The results demonstrate high precision in the empirical validation, with overall accuracy exceeding 80% and a Kappa index above 0.60. The projections reveal that, in the neutral and pessimistic scenarios, there is a continuous loss of natural areas to agricultural and urban expansion throughout the century. Comparing the year 2020 with 2100, the pessimistic scenario estimates a loss of 1,478,229.75 hectares (-55.42%), while the neutral scenario indicates a reduction of 1,353,966.39 hectares (-50.76%). In contrast, the optimistic scenario proves the effectiveness of environmental containment parameters in preserving native vegetation macro-zones, projecting a gain of 1,452.87 hectares (+0.05%) of natural areas over the same period. The work concludes that the custom-built tool overcomes the limitations of closed commercial software, offering a reproducible and customizable instrument. Thus, the research provides essential cartographic and quantitative subsidies to guide land use planning, support the formulation of public policies, and mitigate socio-environmental conflicts resulting from infrastructure expansion in the state.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Interno - 3263586 - FRANCISCO JABLINSKI CASTELHANO
Externa à Instituição - ANA PAULA RODRIGUES FEITOSA FRAZÃO - USP