Banca de DEFESA: ELFAS ALBERTO MACIA

Uma banca de DEFESA de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : ELFAS ALBERTO MACIA
DATE: 01/04/2025
TIME: 14:00
LOCAL: Videoconferência via Gerência de Redes do CCET/UFRN
TITLE:

Population Projections for Subnational Areas of Mozambique by Age and Sex Until 2047

KEY WORDS:

Population projection; Mozambique; subnational areas; age; sex

PAGES: 160
BIG AREA: Ciências Sociais Aplicadas
AREA: Demografia
SUBÁREA: Componentes da Dinâmica Demográfica
SUMMARY:

This study aimed to project the population of Mozambique’s subnational areas by age and sex from 2022 to 2047, using census data from 2007 and 2017 provided by the National Institute of Statistics (INE). The cohort relations method, based on age distribution and survival ratios, was applied to capture demographic dynamics effectively. Two projection approaches were adopted: one using INE’s published projections and another, termed "own projection," which first projected the provinces based on United Nations estimates before projecting districts. INE’s projections employed the demographic components method. The findings indicate variations in annual population growth across Mozambique’s districts, with some experiencing population losses while others see significant increases. The differences between INE and own projections vary by age group and province, highlighting distinct demographic modeling patterns. For most provinces, own projections estimate a larger population than INE’s over time, suggesting methodological differences in fertility, mortality, and migration assumptions. However, in older age groups, INE's projections indicate a larger population. District-level analyses reveal that in many areas, male population projections exceed female projections, possibly due to differences in migration, mortality, or demographic factors. Conversely, some districts show a predominance of female projections, suggesting region-specific factors influencing demographic trends. By 2047, Mozambique’s population is projected to reach approximately 60,117,595, with an average annual growth rate of 2.47%. The provinces of Maputo, Nampula, and Zambézia are expected to grow the most, while Sofala and Tete will experience moderate increases. At the district level, Matola, Tete, and Nampula will have the highest growth rates (1.28%, 1.25%, and 1.16%, respectively), whereas Massangena, Chimonila, and Chigubo will see the lowest growth (0.93%, 0.74%, and 0.83%). These projections are crucial for demographic planning and the formulation of policies addressing population distribution in Mozambique.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Externo à Instituição - BERNARDO LANZA QUEIROZ - UFMG
Presidente - 1346605 - FLAVIO HENRIQUE MIRANDA DE ARAUJO FREIRE
Interno - 2002253 - MARCOS ROBERTO GONZAGA
Interno - 1045286 - VICTOR HUGO DIAS DIOGENES