Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: JONILSON DE SOUZA FIGUEIREDO

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de DOUTORADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : JONILSON DE SOUZA FIGUEIREDO
DATE: 07/09/2024
TIME: 14:00
LOCAL: Videoconferência via Gerência de Redes do CCET/UFRN
TITLE:

ESSAYS ON ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-ARID REGION: ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, AGE STRUCTURE AND FORMAL EMPLOYMENT IN TIMES OF COVID-19

KEY WORDS:

age structure; development; Northern semi-arid; spatial dependence; covid-19.

PAGES: 123
BIG AREA: Ciências Sociais Aplicadas
AREA: Demografia
SUMMARY:

This thesis consists of three essays. Its objective is to analyze the relationship between age structure and development in the Northern Semi-arid Region (SemSet) in 2000, 2010 and 2022, as well as the spatial dynamics of the demographic transition and the evolution of the use of the window of opportunity, with emphasis on the context of covid-19. The first essay estimates the effect of age structure on per capita GDP and HDI-M, using spatial lag and spatial autoregressive error models. The second comparatively analyzes the inter- and intra-regional scales, characterizing them in terms of the stages of transition (and spatial dependence, via the Local Moran Index), of opening and taking advantage of the demographic window. The third analyzes the effects of the pandemic on the use of this window and its spatial dependence. The preliminary estimations (2010 and 2021) reported greater robustness of the autoregressive error model. A 10% reduction in youth dependency results in a 6.75% increase in per capita GDP in 2010 and 8.72% in 2021, while a 10% increase in elderly dependency reduces GDP by 6.27% in 2010 and 8.88% in 2021. At the same time, a 10% increase in the ratio between Labor Population Age adult and other profiles increased GDP by 10.20% in 2010 and 4.73% in 2021. The second essay shows that the window of opportunity in SemSet appeared around 2005, about fifteen years after it was characterized outside the semi-arid region. So, although it is closing, there is a time lapse that is more favorable to SemSet. The evolution of the IEF suggests that the "bonus" materialized moderately until 2014, when it began to be wasted. It also demonstrates the maintenance of SemSet abyss in relation to the rest of the country (in 2022: 18.21%, compared to 40.74%). At the intra-regional level, there was no significant differential. The IEF of 13.49% (rejuvenated) and 12.16% (aged) reveals greater fragility than in the aggregate. The effect of the pandemic was small and of low spatial correlation, both in the case of the shock (2020) and the recovery (2021). Therefore, the preliminary results confirm the importance of the age structure, at the same time that they signal the need to consider the evolution and spatialization of this process, under penalty of greater inefficiency in taking advantage of the demographic window.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Externo à Instituição - KLÉBER FERNANDES DE OLIVEIRA - UFS
Presidente - 1715284 - LUANA JUNQUEIRA DIAS MYRRHA
Interna - ***.649.538-** - SILVANA NUNES DE QUEIROZ - URCA