Banca de DEFESA: NICORRAY DE QUEIROZ SANTOS

Uma banca de DEFESA de DOUTORADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : NICORRAY DE QUEIROZ SANTOS
DATE: 29/11/2021
TIME: 14:00
LOCAL: GOOGLE MEET
TITLE:

The climate and the energy planning in Northeast Brazil


KEY WORDS:

Principal component analysis, streamflow. Dynamic regression model. Power density. Energy planning.


PAGES: 130
BIG AREA: Ciências Exatas e da Terra
AREA: Geociências
SUBÁREA: Meteorologia
SPECIALTY: Climatologia
SUMMARY:

The water scarcity and abundance of the wind resource in northeastern Brazil is a relevant topic for the study focused on energy planning. Currently, electric energy is treated as sensitive input in production chain, and therefore, despite   considerable tradition in using this matrix, the electrical energy presents in the internal scenario considerable restrictions, due to the limitations about of availability of water resource. Its intrinsic relationship with the climate precedes a need for new matrices arise as a sigh of complementarity. In this way, the general objective of this research was to identify the influence of climate in the generation of electric energy in Northeast Brazil. The thesis is divided into two articles. In the first, it was intended to identify the relevant climatic variables that influence hydroelectric generation. The monthly data used were the flow (period from 1964 to 2017), useful volume of the Reservoir (Sobradinho), Tropical Atlantic dipole, sea surface temperature anomalies in the Equatorial Pacific, precipitation, generation, loading and imports of electricity between 2000 to 2017 annual periods. The methodology used is based on statistical inference, principal component analysis and dynamic linear regression model. The results showed a 30% reduction in the streamflow upstream of the surfy Reservoir passing from 2,027 m3.s-1 to 1,428 m3.s-1. Using the scores of the principal components in the dynamic linear regression model, there was a reduction in generation by the hydro source by up to 40%. The second objective article comparing the different characteristics of the alternative wind source submitted to the influence of the monthly data of the ocean indexes and also of the climatic elements, such as temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure and precipitation. Thus, we intended to apply the stochastic weibull models and dynamic linear regression with monthly wind speed data observed from anemometric towers at 80 meters and 10 meters high in a complex terrain region for 2013 to 2020 period. In particular, in 2016 and 2020, there was a significant negative influence on power density with El Niño and negative dipole, respectively. Decreasing tendencies of time series of wind was confirmed at 80 and 10 meters and also from Tropical Atlantic Dipole. In addition to the seasonality used in the regression model, it was observed that the intensity of the wind has dependence on atmospheric pressure, air humidity and ambient temperature.


BANKING MEMBERS:
Presidente - 1914304 - KELLEN CARLA LIMA
Interna - 792.031.834-34 - MARIA HELENA CONSTANTINO SPYRIDES - UFRN
Externo à Instituição - ALLAN RODRIGUES SILVA - Senai
Externa à Instituição - ANA CARLA DOS SANTOS GOMES - UFOPA
Externo à Instituição - MARCOS SAMUEL MATIAS RIBEIRO - UFRA
Notícia cadastrada em: 18/11/2021 10:54
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