Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: SAMYR BARATA CHEBLY

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de DOUTORADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : SAMYR BARATA CHEBLY
DATE: 07/05/2021
TIME: 14:00
LOCAL: GOOGLE MEET
TITLE:

VULNERABILITIES OF THE STATE OF CEARÁ BEFORE CLIMATE CHANGE


KEY WORDS:

CORDEX, socio-environmental impact, Ensemble.


PAGES: 65
BIG AREA: Ciências Exatas e da Terra
AREA: Geociências
SUBÁREA: Meteorologia
SPECIALTY: Climatologia
SUMMARY:

Studies on vulnerability to climate change are of great relevance in different parts of the globe. The Northeast region of Brazil, specifically the state of Ceará, is vulnerable to the occurrence of extreme climatic events, with periods of severe droughts to floods, situations that cause impacts in several socioeconomic sectors, such as human consumption, agriculture, water and energy resources, biodiversity and proliferation. of diseases. Therefore, the use of vulnerability indicators and climate models become essential tools to analyze how vulnerable regions will be affected in conditions of climate change. In this sense, the objective of this research is to identify the vulnerable municipalities in the face of climate changes in the state of Ceará. For this, they used data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, natural disasters, DATASUS, MapBiomas, as well as data from scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 from simulations of the climate models of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). Thus, initially, it aims to identify the vulnerable areas of the municipalities of Ceará through the Municipal Vulnerability Index, which is related to Poverty, Infectious Diseases, Natural Disasters, Socio-political Organization and Socioeconomic Structure. The methodology is based on the assignment of indicative scores of (4) greater or (0) lesser vulnerability for each variable. Then, the combination of the variables by means of the arithmetic mean and standardization of the variables, generating the indices and sub-indices with values that vary in the scale between (0) less vulnerable and (1) more vulnerable. Finally, combinations of simulations (Ensemble) of different Regional Climate Models (MCR) for the scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, in which it will be analyzed using statistical techniques of Multiple Regression by Principal Components. That said, the preliminary results showed that for the Vegetation Coverage and Deforestation Index (ICVD) 63 municipalities had greater vegetation coverage in relation to deforestation, whereas for 121 municipalities in Ceará the vegetation coverage decreased in relation to deforestation. In relation to the Natural Disaster Index (IDN) 72% of the municipalities had a lower degree of vulnerability and 28% a greater degree of vulnerability to climatic interference from meteorological origin. Finally, the Exposure Index (IE), which is the junction of the ICVD and IDN, vulnerable areas with a predominance between moderate-low (0.200 to 0.400) to moderate (0.401 to 0.600) were noted.


BANKING MEMBERS:
Presidente - 1914304 - KELLEN CARLA LIMA
Interna - 792.031.834-34 - MARIA HELENA CONSTANTINO SPYRIDES - UFRN
Externa à Instituição - GISELE DOS SANTOS ZEPKA SARAIVA - CEMADEN
Notícia cadastrada em: 15/04/2021 13:43
SIGAA | Superintendência de Tecnologia da Informação - (84) 3342 2210 | Copyright © 2006-2024 - UFRN - sigaa12-producao.info.ufrn.br.sigaa12-producao