Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: MARCELE DE JESUS CORREA

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de DOUTORADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : MARCELE DE JESUS CORREA
DATE: 05/05/2021
TIME: 14:00
LOCAL: GOOGLE MEET
TITLE:

PRECIPITATION EVENTS IN THE MARANHÃO ISLAND: CLIMATE EXTREME AND POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON URBANIZATION

 

KEY WORDS:

Cities. Cluster analysis. Trend. RCLIMDEX. WRF

PAGES: 60
BIG AREA: Ciências Exatas e da Terra
AREA: Geociências
SUBÁREA: Meteorologia
SPECIALTY: Climatologia
SUMMARY:

The world population is approximately 7.7 billion inhabitants, the estimate is that one third of the global population is currently living in cities with at least half a million inhabitants. This causes the urbanization process to have a direct impact on the environment due to changes in land use and occupation, as cities start to experience problems involving rising temperatures, rising sea levels, heat islands, floods, scarcity water and food, ocean acidification and extreme events, for example, heat waves, droughts, severe rainfall, among others. Thus, urbanization has been considered a factor capable of intensifying rain events, whose changes in land use and the formation of heat islands can affect local and regional circulation. Thus, the main objective of this research is to verify the impact of urbanization on extreme precipitation events on the island of Maranhão. This thesis project is organized in article format, therefore, the first article aims to identify the occurrence of extreme precipitation events in the state of Maranhão, based on climatic indexes, precipitation trends, return periods and dynamic conditions. thermodynamics of the atmosphere. To achieve this goal, daily precipitation data interpolated at a precipitation grid point with a spatial resolution of 0.25 ° × 0.25 ° by Xavier et al. (2016) and ERA 5 reanalysis data. The cluster analysis statistical technique will be used to identify homogeneous precipitation regions in the study area. The indexes of climatic extremes present in the RClimdex program will be used for the identification of precipitation extremes. Mann-kendall and Theil Sen non-parametric statistical tests will be used to quantify the significance and magnitude, respectively, of the same indexes of climatic extremes. Finally, a synoptic analysis of meteorological variables based on the anomalies compositions will be carried out. The preliminary results for the cluster analysis of this first article showed, using the medium link method, the formation of three homogeneous groups for the state of Maranhão, in which it was possible to verify different climatological patterns of precipitation and their relationship with the effects of the influence oceanic, orographic action and the dynamics of meteorological systems such as the Intertropical Convergence Zone and High Level Cyclonic Vortexes. The second article aims to investigate the effect of urbanization in an extreme case of precipitation from numerical simulations for the Maranhão Island. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model will be used to quantitatively analyze the effects of urbanization considering three possible scenarios: without urban coverage (SCU), current urbanization coverage (CUA) and total urban land coverage (CTSU), respectively. The WRF model will be configured with 4 × 4 km (domain 01) and 1 × 1 km (domain 02) one-way grid nesting. As initial and boundary conditions, the results of the Global Forecast System (GFS), with horizontal spatial resolution of 0.5 ° and forecasts every 6 hours, will be used.

BANKING MEMBERS:
Presidente - 1914304 - KELLEN CARLA LIMA
Interna - 792.031.834-34 - MARIA HELENA CONSTANTINO SPYRIDES - UFRN
Externa à Instituição - GISELE DOS SANTOS ZEPKA SARAIVA - CEMADEN