Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: MARIA LEIDINICE DA SILVA

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de DOUTORADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : MARIA LEIDINICE DA SILVA
DATE: 18/02/2020
TIME: 09:00
LOCAL: Sala H5 do setor III
TITLE:

Dynamic Downscaling of Climate Projections on the North and Northeast of Brazil

KEY WORDS:

Downscaling. Trends. Climate Projections. Regional Climate Model.

PAGES: 96
BIG AREA: Ciências Exatas e da Terra
AREA: Geociências
SUBÁREA: Meteorologia
SPECIALTY: Climatologia
SUMMARY:

Regionalized simulations with the regional climate model RegCM4.7 (Regional Climate Model, version 4.7) coupled with the global model CLM4.5 (Community Land Model, version4.5) under scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, which interact with the Fifth Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) will be carried out for the North (AMZ) and Northeast Brazil (NEB). With the objective of verifying if the model through a dynamic downscaling is able to reproduce in an appropriate and coherent way the regional aspects of the influence on the recent climate (period corresponding to the 20th century) in a simulation performed for a 10-year climatology (1996-2005), as well as to evaluate the regional aspects simulated by the model in reporting the projections of changes of these same variables for the future climate (2006-2015; 2040-2050; 2090-2100). For this study, the climate of AMZ and NEB will be characterized based on the variables of precipitation and air temperature close to the surface (2m). Simulations of recent climate conditions will be compared with the observed database of the CRU (Climate Research Unit, version ts4.02), with the purpose of evaluating the performance of this model in representing the influence of variables on climate in the study region. Subsequently, climatic projections will be made with RegCM4.7, for the future climate period, establishing the possible climatological patterns. Of the GCMs that are part of CMIP5, HagGEM2-ES simulates the main aspects of the climate in a sufficient way to consider forcing RegCM4.7 to generate climate simulations and projections, in addition to demonstrating a selection methodology that avoids the poorest models. It is expected that, with the use of the regional climate model and through dynamic downscaling, more detailed and more accurate predictions of these variables will be obtained, in addition to obtaining the added value of the simulations.

BANKING MEMBERS:
Interno - 2086472 - BERGSON GUEDES BEZERRA
Presidente - 1280761 - CRISTIANO PRESTRELO DE OLIVEIRA
Interno - 1164414 - WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES