Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: RAFAELA DOS SANTOS GOMES

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
DISCENTE : RAFAELA DOS SANTOS GOMES
DATA : 20/05/2019
HORA: 14:00
LOCAL: SALA 4, ECT
TÍTULO:

INFLUENCE OF VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE VOLUME OF THE RESERVOIRS OF THE BRAZILIAN NORTHEAST

PALAVRAS-CHAVES:

Climate Variability; Intertropical Convergence Zone; Upper Tropospheric Cyclonic Vortice; Cluster Analysis; Cross-lagged Correlation; Principal Component Analysis.

PÁGINAS: 58
GRANDE ÁREA: Ciências Exatas e da Terra
ÁREA: Geociências
SUBÁREA: Meteorologia
ESPECIALIDADE: Climatologia
RESUMO:

In response to climatic conditions, monitoring the situation of Brazil in terms of reservoir water storage to support the process of management of water resources, it has been featured among the water problems in Northeast Brazil (NEB). In this way, the general objective of the research is to relate the climate variability to the water volume of the NEB reservoirs during the period from 1986 to 2018. To do so, we first seek to identify the relationship between the modes of variability with the sub-regions correlated with the volume of the reservoirs, as well, the impact of the modes of variability in the meteorological systems working in the NEB during the pre and rainy seasons. Therefore, the data will be used: (i) Monthly precipitation of the Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia, Agência Nacional de Águas and state agencies; (ii) sea surface temperature and climatic indexes of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: Oceanic Niño Index, Atlantic Meridional Mode and North Atlantic Oscillation, obtained from the Climate Prediction Center; (iii) Monthly volume of the reservoirs obtained from the Agência Nacional de águas, the Operador Nacional do Sistema Elétrico and the state secretariats of water resources; (iv) zonal and meridional wind, sea surface temperatures, specific moisture of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and long-wave radiation from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Thus, from this data, the precipitation climatology will be calculated on the NEB, then the cluster analysis will be used to divide the study area into climatologically homogeneous precipitation subregions precipitation, for each, sub region so that they can be correlated with the volume of the reservoirs, through cross correlation. Next, we will identify the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the Upper Tropospheric Cyclonic Vortices; (UTCV) by means of objective identification methods to quantify the impact of the modes of variability on them. Finally, quantifications between reservoir volumes and climatic variability are expected as results. Secondly, the impact of climate change on the work of the ITCZ and the UTCV in the near future (2040-2070) and the distant future (2071-2100) in the sub-regions of NEB precipitation anomalies should be investigated. For this, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models will be used considering only the RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.5 emission scenarios. To combine the results of the CMIP5 models, Principal Component Analysis will be applied. In the sequence, it is intended to verify in climates of the near and distant future if there will be an increase or decrease in the amount of UTCV and presence of ITCZ in the study region, considering the scenarios of emission supracited,  as well as precipitation resulting from these systems. Finally, it is expected to identify the possible increase or decrease of rain caused by the ZCIT and UTCV actions in the CMIP5 emission scenarios.

MEMBROS DA BANCA:
Presidente - 1914304 - KELLEN CARLA LIMA
Interno - 2411669 - JONATHAN MOTA DA SILVA
Externa ao Programa - 2190974 - JOANA DARC FREIRE DE MEDEIROS
Externo à Instituição - JOSEMIR ARAÚJO NEVES - EMPARN