Banca de DEFESA: MARCELO LUÍS DE AMORIM SOUZA

Uma banca de DEFESA de DOUTORADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
DISCENTE : MARCELO LUÍS DE AMORIM SOUZA
DATA : 19/11/2018
HORA: 08:00
LOCAL: Anfiteatro B
TÍTULO:

DENGUE IN THE NORTHEAST OF BRAZIL: AN ANALYSIS OF THE SPATIAL-TEMPORAL EVOLUTION AND INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE AND SOCIO-SANITARY VARIABLES


PALAVRAS-CHAVES:

public health, endemic diseases, tropical climate, socioeconomic factors, Grade of Membership (GoM)


PÁGINAS: 128
GRANDE ÁREA: Ciências Exatas e da Terra
ÁREA: Geociências
RESUMO:

Dengue is one of the major human diseases transmitted by mosquitoes and has caused several social and economic impacts in Brazil, particularly on human health. The Northeast Brazil (NEB) has experienced successive epidemic outbreaks of the disease. The aim of this study was to estimate dengue incidence rates for municipalities of NEB using the Empirical Bayesian Method (EB) and to identify dengue hotspots considering the precipitation homogeneous regions of NEB. It was also intended to estimate the Relative Risk (RR) of dengue epidemic rates according to the classification of the House Index (HI). And, finally, it was also aimed to identify profiles and types of climate and social-sanitary vulnerability to Aedes aegypti larval infestation and to dengue incidence in the municipalities of the NEB. Data from the Ministry of Health, IBGE, PNUD and ANA were used. The data analysis period was from 2001 to 2015. The methods used were: EB, Grade of Membership (GoM), Moran’s Index, RR and the tests: t of paired samples, Pearson and Kruskal-Wallis tests. The results showed that 66.56% (in 2002), 49.73% (in 2010) and 62.19% (in 2014) of NEB municipalities registered pre-epidemic (100<IR<300) or epidemic (IR>300) dengue rates. The North and South of the Semi-arid (NS and SS) are among the areas that presented the highest rates of dengue incidence (IR> 300).. In 2014, most municipalities (473) that performed LIRAa/HI were in Alert (1.00<HI<3.99) or in Risk conditions (HI>4.00). An association between HI classification and the IR (p-value <0.001) was found, indicating a RR of dengue 1.20 times greater (95%CI: 0.97-1.48; p-value:0.0803) in municipalities with HI in Alert and 1.81 times greater (95%CI: 1.43-2.29, p-value<0.001) in those with HI at risk compared to those with satisfactory HI. Constatou-se, a partir da utilização do GoM, que 66.3% of the NEB municipalities presented "high" or "intermediate" climate and social-sanitary vulnerability to larval infestation by Aedes aegypti and dengue incidence. Areas classified as "high" vulnerability had the worst social-sanitary conditions and highest annual precipitation rates. These are located mainly in the state of Maranhão (except for its southwestern portion) and scattered areas in the Piauí. It was also noted that the "low" vulnerability areas are located mainly in the coastal region (except in the state of Maranhão and Piauí). The results pointed out significant implications for the identification of areas with dengue epidemic risk trends in one of the regions of Brazil most vulnerable to climate changes.


MEMBROS DA BANCA:
Presidente - 1346630 - LARA DE MELO BARBOSA ANDRADE
Interno - 1752417 - CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA
Interno - 792.031.834-34 - MARIA HELENA CONSTANTINO SPYRIDES - UFRN
Externo à Instituição - JORIO BEZERRA CABRAL JUNIOR - UFAL
Externo à Instituição - KENYA VALERIA MICAELA DE SOUZA NORONHA - UFMG
Notícia cadastrada em: 05/11/2018 12:33
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