Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: JORIO BEZERRA CABRAL JUNIOR

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de DOUTORADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
DISCENTE : JORIO BEZERRA CABRAL JUNIOR
DATA : 25/04/2018
HORA: 08:30
LOCAL: Sala de Seminários de Matemática
TÍTULO:

TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL VARIABILITY OF REFERENCE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND ARIDITY INDEX IN THE NORTHEAST REGION OF BRAZIL, DURING 1980-2013

PALAVRAS-CHAVES:

Evaporation paradox. Reference Evapotranspiration, Aridity Index, Northeast Brazil; Trend analysis.

PÁGINAS: 70
GRANDE ÁREA: Ciências Exatas e da Terra
ÁREA: Geociências
SUBÁREA: Meteorologia
ESPECIALIDADE: Climatologia
RESUMO:

Northeastern Brazil (NEB) presents itself as the region most vulnerable to climatic conditions, with an emphasis on the irregularity of water resources in most of the region. With the advent of the global average global temperature rise, NEB is expected to make the air drier and consequently the demand for water in the atmosphere increases and may make water scarcer. Therefore, the central objective of this study will be to analyze the variability (spatial and temporal) of the Reference Evapotranspiration (ET0) and the Aridity Index (IA), verifying if there are indications of climate changes and which variables influence them most. For this purpose, monthly ET0 meteorological databases and the variables necessary to calculate the IA, made available by Xavier et al. (2015) in the period from 1980 to 2013 (34 years) and with a spatial resolution of 0.25 ° x 0.25 °, making a total of 2043 data points. The IA will be calculated according to the criteria recommended by Thornthwaite (1948). The Cluster analysis method will be adopted to classify subregions in NEB with homogeneous characteristics for ET0 and IA. The respective periodicities of these variables, by sub-region, will be verified through Wavelet analysis. Trend analyzes will also be verified on the monthly, seasonal and annual time scales, using the Mann-Kendall test, and decennial using the Kruskal-Wallis test. The influence of the meteorological variables on ET0 and IA will be determined through the analysis of the partial derivatives. Finally, the procedure of canonical correlations (multivariate statistics) will be applied to verify relationships between the group ET0 and IA with the group of sea surface temperatures (Pacific and Atlantic) and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Statistical significance of 5% shall be used for all tests. Preliminary results indicate that ET0 occurs more strongly in the spring (~ 500 mm) and that ET0 values reach, in some areas, approximately 2000 mm, especially in most of the area that makes up the NEB semi-arid region. For the micro-region of Seridó, Paraíba (São José do Sabugí), positive trends of ET0 were observed, both in the rainy season (March) and in the dry season (spring), with a significance of 5%. IA. It is expected that the scientific contribution will be useful for several areas of knowledge (Climatology, Hydrology, Agrarian Sciences, Geography, etc.) when the objectives proposed in this work are reached, based on the decomposition of NEB according to ET0 and IA, as well as analyzes of evidence of changes in the time series of each, identifying and quantifying which meteorological variables are having the greatest impact on them, as well as verifying which oceanic contributions and vegetation.

MEMBROS DA BANCA:
Presidente - 2086472 - BERGSON GUEDES BEZERRA
Interno - 1752417 - CLAUDIO MOISES SANTOS E SILVA
Externo ao Programa - 2411669 - JONATHAN MOTA DA SILVA