Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: EMERSON DAMASCENO DE OLIVEIRA

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de DOUTORADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
DISCENTE : EMERSON DAMASCENO DE OLIVEIRA
DATA : 20/02/2017
HORA: 08:00
LOCAL: Auditório do CCET
TÍTULO:

The Galactic Comic Rays Theory applied to a simplified climate model


PALAVRAS-CHAVES:

Temperature, Albedo, Galactic Cosmic Rays, Cloud, GREB.


PÁGINAS: 61
GRANDE ÁREA: Ciências Exatas e da Terra
ÁREA: Geociências
SUBÁREA: Meteorologia
ESPECIALIDADE: Climatologia
RESUMO:

In this work it was simulated a climate reconstruction between the years of 1640 and 1995, the purpose was to test the role of the Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) theory (Natural Forcing) in opposition with changes in the Carbon Dioxide concentration (Anthropogenic Forcing). To perform the simulations it was adopted a simplified climate model, the GREB model and its main output variable the surface air temperature. The GCRs theory adapted to source code of GREB model was implemented with a new parameterization, inducing forced variations in the clouds cover, therefore also in the atmospheric albedo. Aiming to test the model sensibility with the new parameterization, were created more two experiments (EXP17, EXP18), with fixed CO2 concentration and changes in the clouds cover (EXP17) and with variations in the CO2 simultaneous to oscillations in clouds cover (EXP18). However, the EXP12, default of GREB model, also was adopted with objective to show the CO2 effects singly on climate; it is worth mentioning that was inserted in the model a temporal series of CO2 in the time interval 1560-1995. Before the simulations it was necessary to do a study correlating different clouds types with GCRs, because the parameterization is dependent of one input parameter, the percentage variation of clouds cover, important to the simulations. Therefore, it was meet in this study that Stratus clouds and other derivative cloud species have optimal correlation with GCRs, also it was meet that deep convection clouds are well correlated with GCRs. The first results indicate that EXP12 and EXP17 are very similar, although has an exception in the half of century XX, because the EXP17 indicates a decreasing in the surface air temperature and the EXP12 indicates an increasing in this same period. But the EXP18 had better results; the reconstruction temperature show optimal correlation with observed temperature anomalies between the years of 1880 and 1995. Nevertheless, when compared the new version of the GREB model with a reconstructed temperature due to ice cores, it is also verified that it was the EXP18 that presented the best results, indicating that it had been accordance with temperatures during the Maunder and Dalton Minimum and the modern heating in the two series (simulated and by ice cores). In this research, we intend to perform new reconstructions, inserting in the experiments the cooling effect from volcanic eruptions, also it is intend to simulate future scenarios aiming the balance analysis between natural and anthropogenic forcing, comparing with IPCC models results.


MEMBROS DA BANCA:
Presidente - 1808127 - JOSE HENRIQUE FERNANDEZ
Interno - 1858120 - DAVID MENDES
Interno - 1879213 - JUDITH JOHANNA HOELZEMANN
Interno - 350691 - MARIA HELENA CONSTANTINO SPYRIDES
Interno - 1164414 - WEBER ANDRADE GONCALVES
Notícia cadastrada em: 14/02/2017 11:07
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