Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: MELINA FERREIRA MARTELLO

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : MELINA FERREIRA MARTELLO
DATE: 03/03/2022
TIME: 09:00
LOCAL: meet.google.com/jph-zowb-tmj
TITLE:

Projected climate-driven shifts in the distribution of Southwestern Atlantic corals support tropicalization


KEY WORDS:

Climate change; Range shifts; Brazilian coast; Marginal reefs; Species Distribution Models.


PAGES: 37
BIG AREA: Ciências Biológicas
AREA: Ecologia
SUMMARY:

Predicting coral species distribution under climate change has been one of the main challenges in framing the future of coral reefs. The Southwestern Atlantic (SWA) reefs were recently acknowledged as potential refugia to global warming, harboring more stress-tolerant corals adapted to suboptimal/marginal environmental conditions and exhibiting lower post-bleaching mortality. We modeled the occurrence probabilities of 12 zooxanthellate reef-building corals that occur along the Brazilian coast (1°N to 27°S). We hypothesized that (i) the distribution of most coral species is likely to expand southwards due to a potential tropicalization of these areas, while tropical areas could become less suitable, and that (ii) corals with a broader distribution would be more likely to shift their ranges due to potentially larger dispersal capacity and greater tolerance to environmental variability when compared to geographically confined populations. We used Spatial Distribution Models with a Bayesian approach to predict the species occurrence probabilities in future time (2050 and 2100) under an intermediate scenario of increasing greenhouse gas emissions through the 21st century (RCP6.0), projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We found that the occurrence probabilities of all modeled corals will decline within the tropics (1°N to 20°S) and increase towards subtropical sites (20°27°S) as early as 2050, with major declines predicted to occur between 9°S and 20°S, which coincides with the region that comprises the richest reef complex in SWA, the Abrolhos bank. Great declines are expected to occur for Brazilian endemic and range-restricted major reef-builders, namely Mussismilia braziliensis and Mu. harttii, likely causing loss of structural complexity and its associated diversity. Higher occurrence probabilities in subtropical areas support the tropicalization hypothesis in SWA, which should benefit species that are already established in these areas, such as Mu. hispida and Madracis decactis, and potentially enrich coral assemblages through the range expansion of other broadly-distributed species, such as Siderastrea spp., Millepora spp. and Porites spp. These rearrangements could add complexity and functions to these marginal reefs or repercute in unexpected ways. Predicted losses in tropical and gains in the subtropical regions emphasize the need to mitigate local stressors and pursue potential ecological corridors that could aid corals to either adapt or move towards more suitable areas, thus keeping pace with climate change


BANKING MEMBERS:
Externo à Instituição - EDSON APARECIDO VIEIRA FILHO
Presidente - 2319234 - GUILHERME ORTIGARA LONGO
Externo à Instituição - MARIANA BENDER GOMES - UFSM
Notícia cadastrada em: 16/02/2022 08:29
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