Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: MILENA CORDEIRO DE AMORIM LOPES

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de DOUTORADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : MILENA CORDEIRO DE AMORIM LOPES
DATE: 29/10/2020
TIME: 14:00
LOCAL: Online via RNP - https://conferenciaweb.rnp.br/webconf/milenacordeiro
TITLE:

RETHINKING ECOLOGICAL RESTORATION THROUGH THE LENS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND EARLY WARNING SIGNALS OF DESERTIFICATION


KEY WORDS:

Critical slowing down; autocorrelation; alternative stable states; EVI; time series; dissimilarity; suitability; predictive modeling; guidelines for restoration. 


PAGES: 61
BIG AREA: Ciências Biológicas
AREA: Ecologia
SUMMARY:

Caatinga contemplates a great amount of biological diversity and ecosystem services and functions as an important carbon sink. However, this biome is among the most sensitive regions of the globe to climate variations and presents environmental conditions and anthropic actions that diminish its resilience. This work intends to: 1) Detect early warning signs of desertification within  Caatinga regions, identifying how local biophysical and anthropogenic factors influence desertification in order to indicate priority areas for restoration; 2) Create guidelines that guide a sustainable forest restoration based on changes in composition by loss, gain and replacement of species in the face of expected climate changes; and 3) Predict the future of arboreal taxonomic groups as a result of predicted climate change and identify the future physiognomy of the Caatinga, in addition to providing a database with lists of species by region appropriate for use in forest restoration in the face of a changing world. For chapter one we used time series of vegetation indices (EVI, 2000-2019) to identify areas that are losing resilience in the Caatinga and relate the loss of resilience with the variables of annual precipitation, mean temperature, water deficit and chronic anthropogenic disturbance through Generalized Linear Models (GLM). We found that 16.14% of Caatinga has a strong temporal autocorrelation, indicating a critical slowing down in the recovery after disturbances and a proximity to a turning point. Most of the regions tended to a change of state from a less vegetated system to a more vegetated one, but a portion equivalent to 17.000 km2 presented a contrary trend, with areas that need more attention so that the forest restoration is used as a tool to avoid desertification. Additionally, high temperatures, high water deficits, low precipitations and moderate to high anthropogenic chronic disturbances presented themselves as factors that intensify the propensity to desertification (critical slowing down), both isolated and in interaction. For chapter two and three we built niche climate models for the present and for the future (2050) for 606 Caatinga tree species. In chapter two we identified areas of species gain, species loss and areas where there will be species substitution, in order to suggest guidelines for restoration in the face of future climate change. We foresee 28.5% of the species will present geographical area expansion, 71.5% reduction and 0.5% will suffer extinction for the whole Caatinga territory. Local extinctions, on the other hand, occur in 88.9% of the regions, with only 11.1% of the Caatinga areas gaining species. Scenarios of species loss and high species turnover were registered, which makes the restoration planning much more challenging. Besides these scenarios, others were analyzed adding six combinations of changes in composition that require different guidelines for the sustainable practice of ecological restoration. The restoration guideline for each scenario was based on the following questions: 1) which restoration method to prioritize (spontaneous restoration or planting?); 2) when to invest in the maintenance of adjacent conservation units due to the future need for source areas?; 3) which species to plant and where to plant threatened species restricted to the biome in the face of the expected climate change? In chapter three we will describe how the Caatinga's tree taxonomic groups will respond to the expected climatic changes and we will produce a database indicating the list of species that can be planted in each region. The future distributions per family will be predicted, evaluating which families will enlarge their geographic distributions and which will reduce, so that we can trace the future physiognomy of the Caatinga through the most abundant species. 


BANKING MEMBERS:
Interno - 1678202 - CARLOS ROBERTO SORENSEN DUTRA DA FONSECA
Presidente - 1677189 - GISLENE MARIA DA SILVA GANADE
Interna - 3058386 - VANESSA GRAZIELE STAGGEMEIER
Notícia cadastrada em: 02/10/2020 20:43
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