Banca de DEFESA: KELLY YUMI INAGAKI

Uma banca de DEFESA de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : KELLY YUMI INAGAKI
DATE: 20/02/2020
TIME: 13:30
LOCAL: sala de reuniões do DECOL
TITLE:

Trophic interactions will expand their distribution and decrease in intensity under climate change

KEY WORDS:

Feeding pressure;Bayesian models;Future projections;Western Atlantic;latitudinal patterns

PAGES: 53
BIG AREA: Ciências Biológicas
AREA: Ecologia
SUMMARY:

Tropical ecosystems harbor higher biodiversity, more intense and diverse ecological interactions than extratropical ecosystems. These latitudinal patterns result from long-term evolutionary processes, but the fast expansion of tropical species polewards due to climate change is altering biodiversity and interaction patterns. Tropicalization events have been identified for many marine organisms, including reef fishes, but the effects of climate change on large-scale patterns of species interactions are still poorly understood. Reef fishes area a good model to investigate these changes because they are critical consumers in reef ecosystems throughout latitudes, whose large-scale patterns of diversity and interactions are well understood. Because temperature affect the physiology of organisms, particularly ecthoterms, we hypothesized that (i) future warming of extratropical zones may intensify trophic interactions and enable tropical species to establish new interactions in these areas; and that (ii) increasing temperatures predicted for the near future would intensify trophic interactions in the tropics, up to the physiological limits when interactions would be no longer viable. This is the first study to evaluate how trophic interactions of different trophic groups (herbivores, invertivores and omnivores) will respond to increasing temperature scenarios. We used data on reef fish occurrence, biomass and patterns of fish trophic interaction on the benthos across 61° of latitude in the Western Atlantic, and applied Bayesian models to predict the intensity of interactions in 2050 and 2100 based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios. Trophic interactions will decline between 50-100% in the tropics, likely indicating that increased temperatures will exceed the physiological thermal tolerance of fishes. In the Northern hemisphere, from 20°N to 40°N, interactions will increase about 100%, likely due to tropicalization of herbivorous fishes and marine currents northward. This phenomenon was not observed in the Southern hemisphere. Interactions by invertivores will decline between 5-100% along Western Atlantic, indicating they may have a narrower thermal tolerance. Interactions by omnivores will decline about 100% at northern and about 30% at southern extratropics, but are likely to increase about 5-20% in the tropics, which could result from their feeding plasticity adaptations to different temperatures. Alternatively, fish can adapt and acclimate to changes in environmental conditions, but if there will be enough time for that to happen is still unclear. Predicting how climate change will affect trophic interactions may help understanding the future of ecosystems and the services they provide.

BANKING MEMBERS:
Externo ao Programa - 660.337.723-34 - EURICO MESQUITA NOLETO FILHO - UNESP
Presidente - 2319234 - GUILHERME ORTIGARA LONGO
Externo à Instituição - MARIANA BENDER GOMES - UFSM