Banca de DEFESA: WILKER FERNANDES SOARES

Uma banca de DEFESA de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : WILKER FERNANDES SOARES
DATE: 28/08/2023
TIME: 09:00
LOCAL: por videoconferência
TITLE:

ANALYSIS OF THE UNCERTAINTIES OF THE EFFICIENCY OF RAINWATER USE SYSTEMS: climate changes, demand, cistern capacity and catchment area

KEY WORDS:

Rainwater tank; performance index; rainfall regime

PAGES: 89
BIG AREA: Engenharias
AREA: Engenharia Sanitária
SUBÁREA: Recursos Hídricos
SPECIALTY: Planejamento Integrado dos Recursos Hídricos
SUMMARY:

The use of rainwater in homes is used as an attenuator of the problems of low water demand, especially in semi-arid or remote regions. This research has the general objective of analyzing the effects of epistemic uncertainties on the water balance of cisterns located in the Brazilian semi-arid region. Thus, to achieve this objective, the Monte Carlo Simulation method was applied, having as input variables the reservoir volume, water demand, catchment area and rainfall, under the effects of climate change, and as a variable output, the performance index called volumetric cistern reliability. For the consideration of climate change, two distinct periods were considered: the recent climate (1979 – 2005) and the future climate (2023 – 2052), using three Global Climate Models, under two radiative forcing scenarios (RCP 4.5 and CPR 8.5). The obtained results indicate low volumetric reliabilities in all simulations, however, even with all the uncertainties, both in the recent climate and in the future climate, the highest efficiency indexes are obtained with the observed precipitation data. The highest frequency of simulations that reached a reliability of 90% occurred for the recent climate, with the observed data, and the lowest frequency happened for the future climate with one of the models under RCP 4.5, however, greater differences are found for lower efficiencies .

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Interna - 1759777 - ADELENA GONCALVES MAIA
Interno - 2411669 - JONATHAN MOTA DA SILVA
Interno - 1242829 - LUCIO FLAVIO FERREIRA MOREIRA
Externo à Instituição - LUIS CÉSAR DE AQUINO LEMOS FILHO - UFERSA