Banca de DEFESA: MIRELA DA SILVA VIEIRA

Uma banca de DEFESA de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : MIRELA DA SILVA VIEIRA
DATE: 20/05/2025
TIME: 14:30
LOCAL: Ambiente virtual
TITLE:

Analysis of Regression Models for State Mortality Rates from Covid-19 in Brazil

KEY WORDS:

COVID-19; GJS regression; PL regression; rates and proportions.

PAGES: 56
BIG AREA: Ciências Exatas e da Terra
AREA: Probabilidade e Estatística
SUBÁREA: Estatística
SPECIALTY: Regressão e Correlação
SUMMARY:

The Ministry of Health received the first notification of a confirmed case of COVID-19 in Brazil on February 26, 2020. Shortly thereafter, on March 20, 2020, community transmission of the disease by COVID-19 was declared throughout the national territory. Brazil was one of the countries most impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, with a cumulative total of approximately 712,090 deaths. The country's federative units were affected unevenly by the pandemic and adopted combat measures with different proposals and intensities. In this work, we consider the regression models of the GJS (Generalized Johnsons SB) and PL (power logit) distribution classes introduced, respectively, by Lemonte and Bazán (2016) and Queiroz and Ferrari (2023) as alternatives to the model proposed in Cribari-Neto (2023) to model the mortality rates by COVID-19 in the Brazilian Federative Units. This paper presents a new contribution applied to the study of comparison of regression models for rates and proportions with the GJS and PL model classes. Among all the regression models considered, we present the one that best fits the modeling of the proportion of deaths due to Covid-19 in Brazilian states, which is extremely important in decision-making and in the measures taken by a state government not only during a crisis such as the Covid-19 pandemic, but also in preparing for future crises.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Presidente - 2310429 - ARTUR JOSE LEMONTE
Interno - 3010614 - ELIARDO GUIMARAES DA COSTA
Externo à Instituição - TIAGO MAIA MAGALHÃES - UFJF