Banca de DEFESA: IARYTHSSA DUARTE DE ARAÚJO

Uma banca de DEFESA de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : IARYTHSSA DUARTE DE ARAÚJO
DATE: 21/02/2025
TIME: 14:00
LOCAL: Sala do BME
TITLE:

Modeling extreme precipitation events in the semi-arid northeast using the ZIGEV
Distribution.

KEY WORDS:

Bayesian inference; Extreme events; Return levels; Semi-arid region.

PAGES: 73
BIG AREA: Ciências Exatas e da Terra
AREA: Probabilidade e Estatística
SUMMARY:

The semi-arid region of Northeast Brazil (NEB) is characterized by irregular rainfall
patterns and high evapotranspiration rates, leading to water scarcity. Additionally, the region
is prone to extreme precipitation events, which can trigger socio-environmental disasters with
severe impacts. Despite the development of various models for extreme event analysis, their
application in the NEB semi-arid region is limited by the lack of methodologies tailored to its
unique characteristics. This study aims to model extreme precipitation events in this region
using the Zero-Inflated Generalized Extreme Value (ZIGEV) distribution. The methodological
approach is based on Bayesian inference, which incorporates uncertainties and prior
information into the parameter estimation process. The analysis focuses on a sub-region of the
NEB semi-arid zone, marked by extremely low annual precipitation and high susceptibility to
extreme precipitation events. Daily precipitation data from 16 localities within the study area
were used to fit the model and estimate the return levels of extreme events. The results
demonstrated the effectiveness of the ZIGEV model in predicting extreme precipitation events,
providing reliable parameter estimates and outperforming the standard GEV model, which
faced convergence issues in many datasets. The ZIGEV model proved suitable for data with a
high proportion of zeros and also converged to the GEV model when the proportion of zeros
was lower. Additionally, the estimated return levels for each locality provided valuable insights
into the occurrence and intensity patterns of these events, contributing to water resource
management and the development of disaster mitigation strategies for the NEB semi-arid
region.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Externa à Instituição - DANIELE TÔRRES RODRIGUES
Interno - 3010614 - ELIARDO GUIMARAES DA COSTA
Interno - 1781198 - FIDEL ERNESTO CASTRO MORALES
Presidente - 2612836 - FRANCISCO MOISES CANDIDO DE MEDEIROS