ANALYSIS OF POLITICAL CYCLES IN BRAZILIAN STATES AND THEIR EFFECTS ON STATE GOVERNMENT CURRENT REVENUE 2000-2022.
Budgetary Political Cycles; Party Ideology; Current Revenue.
This study investigates the relationship between political cycles, party ideology, and the collection of own-source current revenues in Brazilian states from 2000 to 2022. The methodology includes a panel data analysis to examine the dynamics of state revenue collection when subject to cyclical variations in political ideologies regarding their governance. The results indicate that the collection of own-source current revenues in Brazilian states is influenced by electoral cycles and the political ideology of governors. An approximate 5% increase in current revenue was observed in election years, which cannot suggest economic manipulation to maximize votes. On the other hand, left-wing ideology of the governor is associated with a 7.5% reduction in revenue collection, corroborating literature that suggests lower fiscal efficiency in left-wing governments compared to right-wing ones. Additionally, the effect of the interaction between ideology and variations in per capita GDP revealed that states governed by the left achieve higher revenue through transfers but display less favorable economic performance. These findings reinforce the relevance of ideological variations and the electoral calendar in state revenue collection, aligning with theories of Partisan and Opportunistic Models. Overall, this work contributes to the knowledge and characterization of fiscal management in Brazilian states, providing an empirical basis for the formulation of fiscal policies.