An Analysis of Economic and Political Aspects Influencing Governmental Efficiency in Brazilian Municipalities
Results-Based Management; Capital Expenditure; Governmental Efficiency; Financial Condition; Political Cycle.
The growing demand for efficiency, transparency, and fiscal responsibility has driven Brazilian public administration to adopt Results-Based Management models. However, budget execution still shows significant deviations between what is planned and what is actually implemented, particularly in capital expenditures. This study aims to analyze the influence of economic and political factors on capital expenditure deviations in Brazilian municipalities from 2015 to 2024, understood as the proportional difference between the approved budget and its effective execution. The research is structured into two interdependent chapters: the first examines the impact of economic variables such as population, GDP per capita, own-source revenue, and financial liquidity, based on Agency Theory, Financial Condition Theory, and Public Budget Theory; the second investigates the role of political factors such as the electoral cycle, party ideology, electoral competitiveness, reelection, and party alignment, drawing on Public Choice Theory and Political Cycle Theory. The study employs a quantitative methodology with panel data for Brazilian municipalities, applying regression techniques and fiscal performance indicators. Its main contribution lies in integrating economic and political dimensions—often analyzed separately—thus expanding the understanding of the determinants of municipal governmental efficiency. The expected results have the potential to support planning, control, and accountability practices, thereby strengthening results-oriented public management.