Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: TALIA MACÊDO DE ARAÚJO FERNANDES

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : TALIA MACÊDO DE ARAÚJO FERNANDES
DATE: 01/10/2026
TIME: 14:30
LOCAL: Videoconferência via Gerência de Redes do CCET/UFRN
TITLE:

The Influence of X (Twitter) Discussions on Brazilian Women's Intention to Have Children in 2026

KEY WORDS:

Demographic transition; fertility; demographic winter; social influence; online social networks.

PAGES: 37
BIG AREA: Ciências Sociais Aplicadas
AREA: Demografia
SUBÁREA: Política Pública e População
SUMMARY:

Brazil is experiencing a decline in fertility that began in the second half of the 20th century and whose effects continue to this day. The Total Fertility Rate, which stood at 6.28 children per woman in 1960, fell to 2.39 in 2000 and reached 1.5 children per woman in 2022, establishing a fertility rate below the replacement level. This process is linked to structural, cultural, and institutional transformations that have contributed to the redefinition of family models and to new reproductive behaviors. Traditionally explained by economic variables and women’s entry into the labor market, the phenomenon takes on new dimensions in the information age, in which reproductive decision-making is now also understood as a process mediated by the dissemination of ideals and social influence. With the expansion of online social networks, these interactions have shifted to digital environments, where discourses on motherhood mediated by visibility, engagement, and social authority are produced, shared, validated, and challenged. The persistence of fertility at low levels raises a red flag for Brazil’s demographic landscape, bringing the country closer to the conceptual phenomenon known as “demographic winter,” characterized by population aging, a decline in the working-age population, and pressures on social security systems. In this context, this study seeks to answer the following question: In what ways do interactions and the dissemination of ideals on X signal a trend toward demographic winter or, conversely, preserve reproductive intentions among Brazilian users? The overall objective is to analyze how the online social network X (Twitter) influences the interaction and dissemination of ideals regarding reproductive intention in the context of low fertility in Brazil. The study will be qualitative-quantitative and descriptive, adopting computational netnography as its methodological approach. Data will be collected on the X platform using NodeXL Pro, covering Portuguese-language posts including original tweets, retweets, and replies from January through June 2026. The data will be organized into three thematic groups: Pro-Motherhood, Anti-Motherhood, and General Debate. The analysis will examine network structure, centrality metrics, patterns of information flow, and discourses on reproductive intention. The study is based on the hypothesis that discourses reflecting low reproductive intention such as the refusal or postponement of motherhood receive greater social validation through digital engagement and are associated with the formation of specific communities. The study aims to understand how the circulation and reinforcement of these ideals in the digital environment can contribute to interpreting the contemporary trajectory of Brazilian fertility and its possible implications for the demographic winter scenario.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Presidente - 1688188 - MOISES ALBERTO CALLE AGUIRRE
Interno - ***.322.991-** - PABLO MARTIN SEBASTIAN GOMEZ - NÃO INFORMADO
Externo à Instituição - WEBER SOARES - UFMG