Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: ELFAS ALBERTO MACIA

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : ELFAS ALBERTO MACIA
DATE: 28/08/2024
TIME: 14:30
LOCAL: videoconferência via gerência de redes do CCET/UFRN
TITLE:

Population Projections of Mozambique Districts by Age and Sex (2017-2042)

KEY WORDS:

"Population projection; "Districts of Mozambique";"Age and sex"

PAGES: 55
BIG AREA: Ciências Sociais Aplicadas
AREA: Demografia
SUBÁREA: Componentes da Dinâmica Demográfica
SUMMARY:

In the present study, focusing on population projection of the districts of Mozambique by age and sex (2017-2042), we utilized data from the last two censuses (2007 and 2017) provided by the National Institute of Statistics (INE) of Mozambique. The primary objective of this research is to project the population of the districts of Mozambique by sex and age from 2017 to 2042. We opted for the cohort relation method for this study because it directly uses the age distribution derived from survival relationships, providing a more accurate capture of demographic dynamics through its underlying components. Additionally, we combined spatial statistical techniques with the cohort relation method to mitigate one of its main limitations. We suggest the adoption of the empirical Bayesian model, which incorporates the spatial distribution of neighboring or similar areas to the smaller area in question, aiming to reduce excessive fluctuations in the calculation of differential growth factors. Finally, we will present the projection results for all districts of Mozambique from 2017 to 2042. An algorithm in R will be used to implement the cohort relation method adjusted by the empirical Bayesian estimator. This algorithm facilitates the application of the method for updates or changes in the population data of the areas to be projected.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Presidente - 1346605 - FLAVIO HENRIQUE MIRANDA DE ARAUJO FREIRE
Externo ao Programa - 2346233 - FRANCISCO FRANSUALDO DE AZEVEDO - nullInterno - 2002253 - MARCOS ROBERTO GONZAGA
Interno - 1045286 - VICTOR HUGO DIAS DIOGENES