CONTRACTING MUNICIPAL SERVERS: A PROJECTION OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC NEEDS BY BRAZILIAN MUNICIPALITY, 2020 TO 2030
hiring of municipal employees, public services, population aging; public services; population aging
Since the demographic transition began in the 1960s, the composition of the Brazilian population by age has been changing. The demographic changes seen in the last decades have led to changes in population groups and, consequently, in the demand for public services that these groups generate. On the other hand, the population of civil servants is also becoming increasingly aging, which increases the number of civil servants who will become inactive due to eligibility for retirement benefits, disability or dying. In view of the above, the present study aims to estimate the demographic need for hiring municipal statutory employees in Brazil, for the period from 2020 to 2030, considering both the dynamics of exit from activity employees and the population demand for types of public services municipal level (health, education and others). To this end, we intend to use data from municipal statutory employees of the Annual List of Social Information (RAIS, 2018) together with data from the Statement of Results of the Actuarial Valuation - DRAA, from the Social Security Secretariat (SPREV, 2020), and from the database Munic, from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE, 2019). As a main result, it is expected that, in the municipalities where the population of civil servants is older, the need to hire new civil servants will be greater compared to the municipalities whose population of statutory civil servants is younger.