“Did the family grow?”: Demographic Regimes, Diffusion, Family Sizes and Family Composition in Rio Grande do Norte (1960 to 2010)
Demographic Regime; Diffusion; Family Size; Family composition
Studies on population transformations based on the observation of demographic regimes had the pioneering contribution of Hajnal (1965) and Bacci (1999), who analyzed changes in regimes considering not only demographic variables, but also socioeconomic, sociocultural changes and changes in nuptiality. For Rowland (1977) the concept of demographic regime is entirely related to the concept of family system and, therefore, they must be analyzed in an integrated way. From this, we intend to develop a research whose objective is to analyze how the transition from the traditional demographic regime (with high mortality and fertility rates) to the modern one (low mortality and fertility rates, with population growth close to zero) occurred in the Rio Grande do Norte, through the observation of family size and family composition (head of household, spouses, children and stepchildren, other relatives and aggregates) through the theory of diffusion, from 1960 to 2010. Therefore, it is present in the research, discussions about diffusion theory and how it influenced changes in family patterns over time. As a preliminary methodology, we propose the Knox spatiotemporal interaction test and an adaptation of the Cox Proportional Risks Model (SCHMERTMAN; ASSUNÇÃO; POTTER, 2010). It is also suggested to carry out a qualitative research using the focus group method. The data source intended to be used is the Demographic Census, from 1960 to 2010. As a preliminary result, the intention was, at first, to bring a brief demographic characterization of Rio Grande do Norte and compare it to the Northeast to understand how RN is located in the region in relation to some sociodemographic indicators, such as the Total Fertility Rate (TFT), Infant Mortality Rate (TIM) and Life Expectancy. So, the results found showed that RN does not follow a regional trend, on the contrary, it is the Northeast that seems to follow the trends observed in RN.